1 Beijing moves to rally the unions and workers to deal with possible fallout of US-China tariff war
April 28
1. A ceremony was held in Beijing to celebrate the 100th anniversary of the founding of the All-China Federation of Trade Unions (ACFTU) and to commend national “model workers” and “advanced workers” (an honor that is just below “model worker”). According to state media reports, Xi Jinping attended the ceremony and delivered a speech. Leaders from the CCP, the government, the military, mass organizations, and the central committees of various democratic parties were also present.
Noteworthy points from Xi’s speech at the ceremony include:
1. Historical review and significance of the celebration
Xi reviewed the ACFTU’s 100-year journey, highlighting its founding on May 1, 1925 and the inaugural congress held in Guangzhou City. He noted the important contributions of trade union organizations during the revolutionary, construction, and reform periods. Xi also noted that Party Central had made a series of important statements regarding the working class and trade union work since the 18th Party Congress in 2012.
2. Status and role of the working class
Xi said that the 100 years since the founding of the ACFTU have been a century of integrating Marxist labor movement theory with the practical realities of the Chinese workers’ movement. It has also been a century of the Chinese working class and trade union organizations unswervingly following the Party and uniting in the struggle for the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.
Xi emphasized that the working class forms the CCP’s “most solid and reliable class foundation” and is a major force in China’s path to modernization.
3. Role and functions of trade union organizations
Xi said that the most important achievement of the Party’s theoretical innovation and practical development in the labor movement has been the establishment of the path of trade union development with Chinese characteristics. This path insists on the Party’s comprehensive leadership over the labor movement and trade union work. Xi described trade unions as the “bridge and link” between the Party and the working class.
4. Theoretical innovation and practical approach
Xi noted that the ACFTU has developed a path of trade union growth with Chinese characteristics, and its core is adherence to the Party’s leadership. He stressed that this theoretical innovation has provided guidance for trade union work, especially in the new era, on how to better leverage the role of trade unions and promote the all-around development of the working class.
5. Future tasks and goals
Xi outlined the ACFTU’s tasks for future trade union work, including:
- Focus on “Chinese-style modernization” by mobilizing and organizing the working class to devote themselves to high-quality development and to promote technological innovation and the development of new productive forces.
- Promote core socialist values.
- Ensure that trade unions at all levels fully implement the decisions and deployments of Party Central.
- Adhere to the correct political direction, closely uniting workers and the laboring masses around the Party.
- Take firm political responsibility to guide the workforce to listen to and follow the Party. Strive to unite hearts and resolve conflicts, inspire motivation, and continually consolidate the Party’s class and mass foundations for governance.
- Deepen reform within trade unions and strengthen Party-building within them.
6. Call to action and vision
Xi urged the entire working class to closely unite around the Party, work hard, make sacrifices, and shoulder responsibilities to realize the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation. He recalled the slogan from 100 years ago to “strive, strive, strive to the end,” emphasizing that the new era likewise requires tireless struggle.
While presiding over the conference, PRC premier Li Qiang said that Xi Jinping’s important speech was filled with Party Central’s “deep care” for the working class and the broad masses of laborers, and reflected the great importance attached to the labor movement and trade union work. Li added that Xi’s speech is “highly political, ideological, strategic, and instructive,” and must be “thoroughly studied, understood, and fully implemented.” Li also urged everyone to unite even more closely around Party Central with Comrade Xi Jinping at the core.
Before Xi’s speech, Politburo Standing Committee member Cai Qi read a decision by Party Central and the State Council on commending national model workers and advanced workers. A total of 1,670 individuals were awarded the title of “national model worker,” and 756 individuals were awarded the title of “national advanced worker.”
2. PRC state media released details of a 2025 initiative for national model workers and advanced workers. Key points in the initiative include:
- National model workers and advanced workers should maintain political integrity and be firm believers in loyalty to the Party. They should persist in using Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era to strengthen their conviction and “concentrate the heart and cast the soul” (凝心鑄魂), firmly support the “Two Establishes,” and resolutely uphold the “Two Safeguards.”
- National model workers and advanced workers should courageously undertake responsibilities and strive to be tireless contributors to achievements. They should fully play the role of the main force in promoting high-quality development.
- National model workers and advanced workers should enhance their skills and capabilities, and actively practice innovation and creativity. They should also proactively adapt to the new wave of technological revolution and industrial transformation.
- National model workers and advanced workers should promote the spirit of dedication and serve as exemplary leaders in maintaining unity. They should maintain a big-picture perspective; properly handle the relationship between individual and collective interests, between local and overall interests, and between immediate and long-term interests; strengthen social solidarity and cooperation; and safeguard social harmony and stability through concrete actions.
- Everyone should unite even more closely around Party Central with Comrade Xi Jinping at the core, bravely shoulder responsibilities, and unite and strive forward.
Background
The ACFTU typically holds its anniversary celebrations in 5-year or 10-year intervals. After Xi Jinping came to power, no national anniversary celebrations were held in 2015 (the 90th anniversary) or in 2020 (the 95th anniversary). The Xi leadership either conveyed congratulations to the ACFTU via the PRC premier, or Xi attended and delivered speeches at the 16th, 17th, and 18th national congress of Chinese trade unions between 2013 to 2023.
Big picture
China’s export sector is facing immense pressure from steep U.S. tariffs on Chinese exports. Goldman Sachs noted in an April 27 report that as many as 16 million export jobs are at risk due to high U.S.-China tariffs. We previously estimated that tens of millions of jobs in China are likely to be affected by the tariffs.
Without sufficient de-escalation in the Sino-U.S. trade conflict, a large number of small and medium-sized enterprises would be impacted, with those in the wealthy coastal regions that rely heavily on exports being the most heavily affected.
Our take
Xi Jinping and the CCP are not just marking an important milestone for trade unions in China in commemorating the 100th anniversary of the ACFTU. Beijing appears to be making preparations to control a breakdown of social stability as labor conditions worsen due to the U.S.-China tariff war.
1. The CCP is acutely aware of the threat that mass unemployment poses to regime stability. After all, the Party used labor movements to undermine the Kuomintang government in its formative years in Republican China.
Labor problems appear to be steadily rising in the PRC. According to data from China Labor Bulletin, there were 561 collective labor actions in the first four months of 2025, including 358 in construction, 102 in manufacturing, and 56 in the service sector. In comparison, there were 477 collective labor actions in the same period in 2024. Such collective labor actions are likely to multiply as the steep U.S. tariffs hit exporters and the Chinese economy slows down more rapidly.
2. Xi Jinping sought to leverage Marxist ideology (“Sinicized Marxism,” etc.) in consolidating power. However, Xi and the CCP are also highly vigilant about Marxist ideologies circulating in labor movements and their advocacy for workers’ rights.
Workers in China often face tough working conditions and poor treatment, with brutal stories of the horrific labor abuses at Apple manufacturing plants in China previously making international headlines. More recently, a recruitment advertisement from Henan Third Geological Exploration Co., Ltd. that circulated on Chinese social media revealed that the company was offering salaries ranging from zero to 1,000 yuan ($0 to around $137), while some netizens exposed Xiaomi Group for requiring employees to work a minimum of 11.5 hours a day.
Chinese workers have attempted collective labor actions to protect their rights. However, the CCP prohibits workers from forming independent unions, and has taken harsh measures to suppress organizing workers:
- July to August 2018: Some employees at Shenzhen Jasic Technology Co., Ltd. were fired for attempting to form a union. The police also cracked down on those workers. The incident drew a response from students and leftists across the country, but the CCP authorities suppressed the movement and arrested over 50 people. The incident drew international attention.
- Dec. 27, 2018: The Marxist Society at Peking University was restructured by the university over its involvement with the Shenzhen Jasic incident. The university also suppressed over a dozen protesting students, while the police later arrested six Peking University students.
3. Xi Jinping’s speech to the ACFTU and the 2025 initiative for national model workers and advanced workers urged trade unions and workers to uphold the Party’s leadership, be loyal to the Party and rally around Xi, and take the “big picture” view. Put another way, the Xi leadership is expecting workers and trade unions to be willing to sacrifice their personal interests over that of the CCP’s in the face of mass unemployment and deteriorating economic conditions. Beijing is also hoping that the unions and workers can demonstrate a “spirit of dedication” when the going gets tough to maintain the stability of the CCP regime.
We believe that Xi’s urgings will ultimately be futile. When pushed to the brink, even the best “model worker” will prioritize personal interests over those of the Party’s. The ability of local governments to “maintain stability” and suppress labor movements triggered by mass unemployment is also in doubt as they face increasing fiscal shortages. The likelihood of consequential labor movements emerging in the future will continue to rise so long as the Sino-U.S. trade war persists and does not significantly de-escalate.
2 Xi strengthens discipline supervision in lead up to Beidaihe retreat
Beijing dispatches ‘eight-point regulation’ guidance teams
April 29
Beijing held a training conference for central guidance groups on the in-depth study and implementation of the central eight-point regulation spirit (中央八項規定精神) to mobilize and train teams for supervisory work. Shi Taifeng, Politburo member and deputy head of the Central Leading Group for Party-building, attended the meeting and delivered a speech. Liu Jinguo, secretary of the Secretariat of the Central Committee and deputy secretary of the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection, presided over the meeting.
The meeting said that the Central Committee decided to dispatch eight central guidance groups to 21 regions and work units. It also emphasized that the central guidance groups must diligently fulfill their duties and responsibilities, promote rectification and improvement, and focus their efforts on addressing problems.
The regions and work units where central guidance groups would be sent include:
- Hebei Province
- Anhui Province
- Henan Province
- Hainan Province
- Qinghai Province
- Qianjiang City (Hubei Province)
- Changde City (Hunan Province)
- Economic Daily newspaper
- Ministry of Industry and Information Technology
- Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs
- General Administration of Sport of China
- State Tobacco Monopoly Administration
- China Investment Corporation
- Industrial and Commercial Bank of China
- China Life Insurance Group
- China State Shipbuilding Corporation
- State Grid Corporation of China
- Sinochem Holding
- Renmin University of China
- Tianjin University
- Jilin University
April 30
Party mouthpiece People’s Daily published a commentary on the in-depth study and implementation of the central eight-point regulation spirit titled, “Take Real Action, Enforce Strict Supervision, and Promote the Resolution of Prominent Issues” (動真碰硬、嚴督實導，推動解決突出問題).
The article said that since the 18th Party Congress, Party Central with Comrade Xi Jinping at the core has taken the formulation and implementation of the central eight-point regulation as a starting point to:
- Tackle the “four winds” (i.e. the “undesirable work styles” of formalism, bureaucracy, hedonism, and extravagance) with a persistent, nails-to-the-board spirit.
- Curb long-standing unhealthy trends.
- Address deeply entrenched chronic issues.
- Bring about a fresh transformation in Party conduct, government conduct, and social conduct.
- Unite the hearts and minds of the Party, the military, and the people.
- Become a defining act of credibility for the Party in the new era and a “golden business card” for Party governance.
The article also warned that work style problems are “recurring and deeply rooted,” and implementing the eight-point regulation spirit is a “tough and long-term battle.” These work style issues are longstanding and widely criticized by the public, and cannot be effectively resolved by localities and work units alone.
The article noted that the main responsibility of the central guidance groups is the “supervision and inspection” (督促指導) of how localities are implementing General Secretary Xi Jinping’s important speeches and instructions, as well as Party Central’s deployment of the study and education campaign. The central guidance groups are also tasked with “supervising and guiding” (督促指導) local entities to take real, hard-hitting actions to resolve prominent issues that violate the central eight-point regulation.
Backdrop
1. The CCP launched an educational initiative focused on studying and implementing Xi Jinping’s key speeches and instructions on the eight-point regulation immediately after the conclusion of the 2025 Two Sessions. Per Party Central’s decision, the entire Party would engage in educational activities centered on the implementation of the eight-point regulation from the end of the Two Sessions until July 2025.
The educational campaign also required all Party members to thoroughly study and implement Xi Jinping’s important speeches and directives, fulfill the requirements laid out in the official notice about the campaign, deeply grasp the decisive significance of the “Two Establishes,” firmly uphold the “Two Safeguards,” and align their thinking and actions with the decisions and deployments of Party Central.
2. Xi proposed the central eight-point regulation at a Politburo meeting held less than a month after the closing of the 18th Party Congress in 2012. The rollout of the eight-point regulation — a set of rules aimed at improving the work style of officials (i.e. curb corruption and bureaucratism while strengthening discipline) and strengthening the Party’s ties with the masses — marked the launch of Xi’s sweeping anti-corruption campaign and power consolidation.
Our take
There are several reasons why Beijing is promoting the eight-point regulation and dispatching central guidance teams to ensure its promotion:
i) The eight-point regulation is a key part of Xi Jinping’s anti-corruption campaign. Its current promotion is in line with the Xi leadership’s “Yan’an-style” rectification campaign that Xi signaled would get underway after the 20th Party Congress.
ii) The Xi leadership could be looking to use a rectification campaign to partly divert attention away from the issues stemming from heightened economic and trade pressures facing China due to steep U.S. tariffs and other crises. When Party members and cadres are kept busy with political study sessions and face scrutiny from central guidance groups, many of them will feel that they are at risk of being purged and become more wary about engaging in “improper discussions” of Party Central’s policies (妄議中央) and expressing other forms of dissatisfaction.
The anti-corruption authorities have already been targeting officials for speaking up against Beijing on the sly. On April 23, the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection announced that Lu Kehua, a former standing committee member of the Chongqing Municipal Party Committee and former secretary of the Chongqing Municipal Political and Legal Affairs Commission, was expelled from the Party and removed from public office. The CCDI accused Lu of “losing his ideals and beliefs, abandoning his original mission, engaging in ‘low-level red’ (低級紅) and ‘advanced blackening’ (高級黑), and associating with political swindlers,” all in violation of the central eight-point regulations. Notably, the CCDI’s charge against Lu of engaging in “low-level red” and “advanced blackening” indicated that he very likely made implicit criticisms of Xi or his leadership.
iii) Beijing could be intensifying the rectification movement to punish corruption on a broader scale and have a reason to confiscate assets from guilty officials to replenish the state coffers.
The Xi leadership could be more interested now in finding non-tax revenue streams with sources of collectible local tax becoming increasingly scarce as China’s economy worsens. The central government also repeatedly criticized efforts by local governments to boost their coffers through “chaotic” measures like “deep-sea fishing” style law enforcement (遠洋捕撈式辦案), which negatively impact the business environment. In the first quarter of 2025, the national tax revenue fell by 3.5 percent from a year ago while the non-tax revenue grew by 8.8 percent. Compared to 2024, non-tax revenue growth was below double digits only in January-February (8.6 percent) and April (9.4 percent), while non-tax revenue for the whole of 2024 surged by 25.4 percent.
Confiscating the assets of corrupt officials is one way that Beijing can legitimately boost state revenue. Such anti-corruption moves are in line with reports that specialized secret prisons have been constructed across mainland China in 2023 and 2024 to detain purged officials, and the targeting of corrupt officials is a “revenue-generating” measure for Beijing.
iv) The Xi leadership could be aware of rumors circulating abroad questioning Xi Jinping’s grip on power and health. Beijing would therefore perceive the need to strengthen political indoctrination and surveillance to ensure that Party members and cadres deepen their loyalty to the “Xi core” and more diligently carry out the central government’s directives and deployments.
v) Given that the current eight-point regulation promotion is scheduled to continue until July, it is possible that the Xi leadership is looking to keep all Party members and cadres on their toes before the annual Beidaihe work retreat and ensure that Xi Jinping does not meet with any sort of pushback during the informal political gathering.
