Our China 2025 outlook contains 32 predictions covering eight categories.
SinoInsider subscribers can download our China 2025 outlook here.
Not a subscriber? Sign up here.
China’s economy continued to show weakness throughout 2024. Growth has noticeably slowed, deflationary pressures are rising, and consumer confidence is near a record low. Also, the property market has failed to turn around despite the introduction of policies to facilitate buying, local debt issues are becoming prominent, and foreigners are pulling investments from the country.
The economic situation was severe enough for the Xi Jinping leadership to roll out a raft of support measures at the end of September that appeared to contradict its previous approach to the economy. However, the official economic data for the fourth quarter of the year suggested that Beijing’s rescue policies were not enough to turn things around.
Meanwhile, questions about political stability inside the CCP are starting to emerge. Rumors and speculation about Xi’s political position, including his control over the military and regime in general, circulated nonstop throughout 2024. The official investigation of Xi’s close ally and top military political officer Miao Hua at the end of November indicated at least that not everything was right in Zhongnanhai.
We believe that the various political, economic, social, and external problems facing Xi and the CCP are likely to worsen even further. Should those problems spiral out of control, China could see political Black Swans in 2025.
We anticipate three broad trends in 2025:
- Domestic conditions in China will deteriorate across the board regardless of fluctuations in external conditions.
- The Chinese economy will worsen, deflationary pressures will persist, and capital outflows will accelerate. The CCP authorities, who continue to draw inspiration from Marxism-Leninism and derivative communist theories, will find themselves lacking solutions to resolve China’s economic troubles.
- Social problems like “revenge against society” incidents will surface with greater regularity.
- Global developments will complicate matters for China.
- Economies and markets could see downturn and turbulence in 2025. This would in turn worsen China’s economic and financial woes.
- The return of Donald Trump to the White House could usher in a Sino-U.S. “trade war 2.0,” continued technology restrictions, and other developments that would prove detrimental to the CCP regime.
- Countries around the world could see changes of government. But government and citizen awareness and concern about the CCP threat will likely be sustained and even grow as the international community looks to deter Beijing from considering an invasion of Taiwan.
- Xi Jinping and the CCP will face increased political risks and challenges.
- Political rumors about Xi “losing power” or facing serious threats to his authority will likely continue to circulate in overseas Chinese-speaking circles and even in the Western media.
- Xi’s anti-corruption investigation and purge of the senior military leadership ranks would have a destabilizing effect and could lead to pushback.
- Worsening economic and social problems in China could spark social movements and unrest that the CCP authorities would struggle to deal with.
Our 2025 China Outlook contains 32 predictions covering eight categories: Politics, the economy, military, society, Hong Kong, cross-strait relations, Sino-U.S. relations, China and the world.
Our China 2025 outlook contains 36 predictions covering eight categories: Politics, the economy, military, society, Hong Kong, cross-strait relations, Sino-U.S. relations, China and the world.
