What Trump’s Second Term Means for China
Xi and the CCP will almost certainly find their troubles compounded should Trump press ahead with his China agenda over the next four years.
OUR RESEARCH
19th Party Congress Forecast: An Updated Standing Committee Scenario
◎ Xi will flexibly interpret existing Communist Party norms to achieve two goals.
North Korea May Test Missile During 19th Congress Period
◎ North Korea may either launch a ballistic missile or carry out a nuclear test on the opening day of the Congress.
19th Party Congress Forecast: Two Top Military Command Scenarios
◎ Presenting our forecast for the Central Military Command reshuffle.
China Repatriating Wanted American Spells Trouble for Guo Wengui
◎ Based on our analysis, Guo is deeply involved in the power struggle between Xi Jinping and the Jiang Zemin faction.
Seventh Plenum Report Cues Xi Surpassing Jiang Zemin, Hu Jintao
◎ How “Xi Jinping Thought” will eventually be phrased in the CCP constitution will be a bellwether of Xi’s political strength.
Xi in Control of Military Service Branches After Appointing New Commanders
◎ Xi has spent the last five years consolidating his control over the military by instituting comprehensive reforms and reshuffling top personnel.
The Fate of China’s Anti-corruption Agency Post-19th Congress
◎ The National Supervisory Commission is a new state anti-corruption body with jurisdiction over CCP cadres and state employees.
Scrapped Anti-corruption Column Foreshadows Wang Qishan’s Future
◎ Anti-corruption chief Wang Qishan launched the CCDI website in 2014 to allow the CCDI to control its own propaganda messaging and circumvent the Jiang Zemin faction-controlled propaganda apparatus.
New Military Vice Chairs May be Added at the 7th Plenum
◎ Xi is looking to vest more power in his position as CMC chairman and dilute the authority of the vice chairs.
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