China Outlook 2025: Crises Set to Worsen for Xi and the CCP
Our China 2025 outlook contains 32 predictions covering eight categories.
OUR RESEARCH
Politics Watch: ‘Xinjiang Papers’ Another Confirmation of Political Crisis in the CCP
◎ While it is easy to focus on the human rights aspect of the Xinjiang Papers, observers should be aware of its larger and more consequential political implications.
Human Rights: Help or Hindrance to Toppling Dictators?
◎ Trump’s demands for structural economic change in China, if actually implemented by Beijing, could finally bring accompanying political reforms.
Emergency Warning: Multiple Signs Point to Imminent, Hardline Crackdown in Hong Kong
◎ Various signs indicate that the Hong Kong government could go ahead with a large-scale crackdown on the anti-extradition bill protests.
Risk Watch: A Watershed Moment Nears as the Hong Kong Situation Deteriorates
◎ The CCP, the Hong Kong government, and the Hong Kong police are “pouring oil on fire” by ramping up violent tactics and disinformation operations to suppress the Hong Kong anti-extradition bill protests.
Geopolitics Watch: What a ‘Rollback’ of Tariffs Means for the Sino-US Trade Deal
◎ A closer examination of recent developments suggests dim prospects for the “phase one” trade deal and future Sino-U.S. trade agreements.
The US Must Support the Chinese People Against the Chinese Communists
◎ The Trump administration should exploit communist China’s greatest vulnerability.
Politics Watch: Shifting Trends in Hong Kong Post-Fourth Plenum
◎ Based on our observation, the CCP is again preparing to shift strategies in Hong Kong as it pursues short, medium, and long-term agendas.
Politics Watch: Early Analysis of the CCP Fourth Plenum
◎ The outcome of the Fourth Plenum suggests that it unfolded as we previously analyzed.
To Cope with China, Don’t Follow the Money — Follow the Czechs
◎ There are things the Czechs themselves still can do to teach China that it doesn’t hold all the cards.
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