1 Xi urges senior officials to not waver in policy implementation
On Oct. 29, a special seminar on “learning and implementing the spirit of the 20th Central Committee’s Third Plenum” commenced at the Central Party School in Beijing. PRC premier Li Qiang presided over the seminar, which was attended by all members of the Politburo Standing Committee, vice president Han Zheng, and senior officials from the Party, government, and military at the provincial level and higher.
Xi Jinping delivered a speech at the opening ceremony of the special seminar. Noteworthy points in Xi’s speech include:
- Xi said that he set the regime on a “new journey of comprehensively deepening reform and systematically promoting reforms” after taking office, which was of epoch-making significance.
- Xi stressed that the major principle of “further comprehensively deepening reforms” is “upholding integrity and innovation,” or “adhering to the Party’s overall leadership, adhering to Marxism, adhering to socialism with Chinese characteristics, and adhering to the people’s democratic dictatorship.” Also, cadres “must not waver at any time or under any circumstances,” and “decisively change what needs to be changed, and not change what does not have to be changed.”
- Xi called for the need to uphold the “unity of reform and the rule of law,” as well as “reform and opening up.”
- Xi emphasized that senior cadres, and especially senior officials, bear important responsibilities in advancing reforms. He called on senior officials to “face contradictions and problems without avoidance, eradicate entrenched issues without hesitation, and confront risks and challenges without retreat.”
- Xi called for “doing a good job in guiding public opinion on reform,” “building broad consensus,” and guiding officials and the masses to enhance their awareness of the overall situation and correctly addressing the adjustments in interest relations and personal gains and losses during the reform process.
- Xi stressed that all regions and departments must earnestly implement the series of major measures determined by the Politburo meeting and effectively manage their work in the remaining two months of the year to strive to achieve the annual goals and tasks for economic and social development.
Li Qiang highly lauded Xi’s speech, describing it as “ambitious in intent, profound in thought, incisive in discourse, and rich in connotation, possessing strong political, theoretical, targeted, and guiding significance.” He added that Xi’s speech is of “great importance” for the whole Party, especially senior officials, in helping them fully and accurately understand the spirit of the Third Plenum of the 20th Central Committee. Li also urged officials to effectively unify their thoughts and actions with Xi’s speech and the decisions of Party Central, and creatively implement reform tasks.
PRC official media, including Xinhua and People’s Daily, published editorials praising Xi Jinping’s speech at the Central Party School. The headlines of those editorials are:
- Oct. 30: “Xinhua Commentary: Historical Achievements in Comprehensively Deepening Reforms in the New Era.”
- Oct. 30: “People’s Daily Commentary: Upholding Integrity and Innovation — Major Principles That Must Be Firmly Grasped and Always Adhered To.”
- Oct. 31: “Xinhua Commentary: Firmly Grasping the Major Principle of Upholding Integrity and Innovation.”
- Oct. 31: “People’s Daily Commentary: Insisting on Using Scientific Methods to Guide and Promote Reform.”
- Nov. 1: “Xinhua Commentary: Pay Attention to Scientific Methods and Systematically Advance Reforms.”
- Nov. 1: “People’s Daily Commentary: Build Broad Consensus and Smoothly Advance Reforms.”
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On Nov. 1, Politburo Standing Committee member Cai Qi attended the closing ceremony of the special seminar and delivered a summary speech. Cai said that Xi Jinping’s opening ceremony speech was not just a profound reiteration of the spirit of the Third Plenum, but also a strong mobilization for effectively implementing the “Decision” made at the plenum. Cai added that Xi’s speech holds significant and far-reaching guiding importance for “further comprehensively deepening reforms in the new era and on the new journey.”
State media reported that the seminar’s participants, who were guided by “Xi Jinping Thought,” carefully studied Xi’s opening ceremony speech and the spirit of the Third Plenum, engaged in deep discussions and exchanges related to actual work, deepened their understanding of “further comprehensively deepening reforms,” and enhanced their sense of responsibility and mission.
Our take
1. Xi Jinping’s speech to the special seminar on “learning and implementing the spirit of the 20th Central Committee’s Third Plenum” conveys some political signals and clarifications. First, Xi wants senior cadres and officials to know that his leadership’s recent economic support measures are not a shift away from socialism or his past policies, but are necessary steps for survival on the “new journey of comprehensively deepening reform and systematically promoting reforms.” Therefore, cadres and officials “must not waver at any time or under any circumstances” in carrying out Xi’s policies, and must “decisively change what needs to be changed, and not change what does not have to be changed.” Second, Xi wants senior cadres and officials to understand that his “further comprehensively deepening reforms” are rational and grounded in the law, and the Xi leadership does not plan to turn China into a closed country but instead align the country with international standards.
Xi was also conducting political mobilization at the special seminar. He appeared to attempt addressing longstanding issues of “lying flat” (躺平), “inaction” (不作為), and “chaotic action” (亂作為) by urging senior officials and cadres to take responsibility for “further comprehensively deepening reforms,” as well as “face contradictions and problems without avoidance, eradicate entrenched issues without hesitation, and confront risks and challenges without retreat.” Xi also urged senior officials and cadres to put the regime’s interests above their own by “correctly addressing the adjustments in interest relations and personal gains and losses during the reform process,” as well as helping Beijing in shaping public opinion and “building broad consensus.” Finally, Xi made the (unrealistic) expectation of senior officials and cadres to guide all regions and departments in implementing Beijing’s policies to achieve the CCP’s annual economic growth targets in the remaining two months of the year.
Xi’s political mobilization and the political signals sent in his speech to the special seminar reflect the Xi leadership’s current challenges with governance and the CCP regime’s crises more broadly. In pursuing so-called “further comprehensively deepening reforms” during his tenure, Xi had undermined the interests of many Party elites and bureaucrats, resulting in “inaction” and other forms of passive resistance against his rule. Passive resistance plus the systemic deficiencies of the CCP dictatorship means that the central government faces great difficulties in policy implementation. When things go south, Xi is left to pick up the pieces and deal with the political risk.
2. Xi Jinping’s speech to the special seminar at the Central Party School and the subsequent state media coverage further debunks ongoing rumors and speculation by some overseas Chinese commentators and media outlets that Xi is “losing power.”
First, Xi’s speech and the multiple state media commentaries on it indicate that the CCP is still upholding Xi, his policies, and his political legacy. Had Xi been truly “weakened” politically, there would have been a noticeable attempt to marginalize his political achievements and political legacy instead of reinforcing them at important meetings and through propaganda.
Second, state media reporting on the special seminar did not mention Central Military Commission vice chairman Zhang Youxia, whom some overseas Chinese commentators and media outlets have claimed had supplanted Xi to a degree in the military and had some sort of advantage in factional struggle. If those speculations were accurate, then state media should have made some glowing references to Zhang or other signals that indicate a shift in political power. However, state media continued to report on Xi per the usual propaganda without mentioning Zhang.
Finally, state media continues to depict Zhang Youxia as one of many “diligent” and subservient Xi loyalists. CCTV’s “Xinwen Lianbo” evening prime time program showed Zhang and other senior officials seated below the podium in the hall at the special seminar, where they listened attentively to Xi Jinping’s speech and took notes. Zhang and the others were also no doubt subjected to indoctrination in Xi’s political theories and had to “engage in deep discussions and exchanges related to actual work” at the special seminar. Given the current power dynamic between Xi and Zhang, as well as Xi and other senior officials, it is very unlikely that Xi has been marginalized as some have speculated.
2 Xi sends political signals to the Party elite in marking the birth anniversary of Ye Xuanping
Ye Xuanping 100th birthday anniversary commemoration
On Nov. 1, a symposium commemorating the 100th birth anniversary of Ye Xuanping, the former governor of Guangdong and eldest son of revolutionary military leader Marshal Ye Jianying, was held in Beijing.
Shi Taifeng, a vice chairman of the National Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference and a Politburo member, delivered a speech at the symposium. In his speech, Shi emphasized the importance of learning from Ye’s “political character of loyalty to the Party.”
Other noteworthy points in Shi’s speech include:
- The symposium, which was approved by Party Central, aimed to honor Ye’s “life achievements,” as well as have cadres reflect on and learn from his “revolutionary spirit, noble character, and exemplary style.”
- When recounting Ye Xuanping’s life, Shi said Ye “had a clear-cut stance in politics and always maintained a high degree of consistency with Party Central.”
- Ye faced persecution during the Cultural Revolution, but his “loyalty to the Party and the people never wavered.”
- While working in Guangdong, Ye said, “Whatever Party Central advocates, we must do well; whatever Party Central prohibits, we must not do.”
- During the 1989 Tiananmen Square incident, Ye called for the need to “follow Party Central’s directives, correctly understand the situation, distinguish right from wrong and policy boundaries, and refrain from words and actions that would undermine overall stability.”
- When he was a vice chairman of the CPPCC National Committee and deputy Party secretary of the CPPCC Party Group, Ye repeatedly called for “maintaining the correct political direction.”
- After stepping down from leadership roles, Ye firmly supported Xi Jinping’s position as core of Party Central and CCP core leader, and upheld the “quan wei” (authority and prestige) and unified leadership of Party Central with Xi at the core.
- Shi praised Ye’s active involvement in “reform and opening up.” Faced with concerns from some cadres and citizens in the early days of reform, Ye said, “We must seriously be like cats that catch mice.” Ye also diligently implemented Party Central’s decisions on reform and opening up and “boldly explored” various reforms for a socialist market economy.
- Shi said that commemorating Ye Xuanping means “maintaining unwavering loyalty to the Party.” Shi also urged cadres and officials to continue maintaining a high degree of consistency with Party Central and the “Xi core” in “political stance, political direction, political principles, and political path.”
- In concluding, Shi said that the “great ideals pursued and fought for by Ye Xuanping and other predecessors are being realized step by step.” Shi also called for closer unity around Party Central with Xi Jinping at the core, taking “Xi Jinping Thought” as guidance, and thoroughly implementing the “spirit of the 20th Party Congress and the Third Plenum of the 20th Central Committee.”
On Nov. 2, Party mouthpiece People’s Daily published Shi Taifeng’s speech in full on the fifth page of its broadsheet.
Brief background on the Ye clan
The Ye clan wielded considerable influence in the CCP elite, in the military, and in Guangdong Province. In factional struggles after the downfall of the “Gang of Four,” virtually no one dared to openly speak ill of the Ye clan.
Ye Jianying was one of the “Ten Marshals” who helped establish the People’s Republic of China. He served as a member of the Politburo Standing Committee, CCP vice chairman, Central Military Commission vice chairman, and minister of defense. During the Cultural Revolution, the “Gang of Four” repeatedly attempted to oust (including assassinate) Ye, but were unsuccessful. After Mao Zedong’s death in 1976, Ye cooperated with then CCP boss Hua Guofeng and General Office director Wang Dongxing to arrest the “Gang of Four” in the Huaigentang Incident.
Ye Xuanning, the younger brother of Ye Xuanping, was also wielded substantial influence. Ye Xuanning previously served as head of the CMC General Political Department’s liaison department and was involved in intelligence work. The companies that Ye founded to generate funds for the General Political Department’s liaison department gave his intelligence network a very large degree of autonomy, as well as allowed him to sponsor the education and influence operations of many “second generation red” offspring abroad. Ye being the benefactor of “second generation red” children almost certainly gave him a degree of influence over them and no doubt contributed to his reputation of being the “spiritual leader of the princelings.”
Relations between the Xi and Ye clans
The Ye and Xi clans appear to share a good relationship and political ties. Xi Zhongxun was appointed governor of Guangdong, the stronghold of the Ye clan, after he was fully rehabilitated in 1978. A year later, Ye Xuanping was transferred from the central government to Guangdong to serve as Xi’s deputy. In 1980, Xi Zhongxun returned to Beijing to serve as vice chairman of the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress under Ye Jianying, who was chairman.
When Xi Jinping took office in 2012, rumors at the time said that Ye Xuanning represented the princelings in supporting him. Upon their deaths, both Ye Xuanning (died July 2016) and Ye Xuanping (died September 2019) were commemorated with high honors by the CCP leadership. At both funerals, Xi Jinping’s mother sent a wreath and Xi’s brother Xi Yuanping attended in person to pay his respects.
Our take
1. The CCP typically commemorates leading founding revolutionaries (like Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaoping) or second generation leaders (like Hu Yaobang) who made important contributions to the regime. However, Ye Xuanping was only a vice chairman of the National Committee of the CPPCC of the second generation of leaders, with many senior officials of higher position and greater accomplishments ahead of him. We believe that Ye Xuanping’s lineage and his family’s good relations with the Xi clan are the central factor behind why his 100th birth anniversary was commemorated despite his seeming lack of official status and accomplishments.
2. Xi ally Shi Taifeng’s speech at the symposium commemorating Ye Xuanping contains several political signals that appear to be aimed at the CCP elite and their families.
Xi Jinping wants the CCP elite and their families to be utterly loyal to him and be committed to implementing his policies. This is seen from Shi recounting Ye Xuanping’s remark that “whatever Party Central advocates, we must do well; whatever Party Central prohibits, we must not do,” and call for cadres to “seriously be like cats that catch mice” when carrying out reform.
Xi also warns the CCP elite and their families not to challenge his rule. They are advised to follow the example of Ye Xuanping during the Tiananmen Square incident, who called for “following Party Central’s directives, correctly understanding the situation, distinguishing right from wrong and policy boundaries, and refraining from words and actions that would undermine overall stability.”
3. Xi’s “borrowing” of Ye Xuanping’s birth anniversary commemoration to carry out political mobilization aimed at the CCP elite and their families suggests that he faces potentially significant and growing resistance within the Party as the PRC’s many crises intensify.
Xi’s implementation of so-called “further comprehensively deepening reforms” (including the anti-corruption campaign) over the years undoubtedly harmed the interests of many Party elites and incurred their dissatisfaction. We previously learned from sources close to the CCP elite that Xi had the support of 90 percent of the princelings when he took power, but over 90 percent of the princelings were reportedly opposed to him before the 20th Party Congress. There were also rumors circulating at the start of the year (see here and here) that influential Party princelings had been mobilizing against Xi from the fourth quarter of 2023. It is possible that Xi’s doubling down on political indoctrination and mobilization this year, as well as his willingness to shift economic policies more rapidly, are partly aimed at addressing Party elite dissatisfaction and fostering intra-Party harmony.
Note that mounting opposition or dissatisfaction towards Xi in the Party elite does not mean that he is “losing power” as some Chinese commentators and media outlets have been speculating. Xi can be completely in control yet still face immense resentment among the PRC officialdom and the general public.
