1 The strategic concerns behind Xi’s trip to Tibet to mark 60 years of PRC rule
Aug. 20
Xi Jinping led a central government delegation to Lhasa, Tibet to attend the celebration of the 60th anniversary of the founding of the Tibet Autonomous Region. State media reported that Xi listened to the Tibet Autonomous Region Party Committee and government’s work report (delivered by Tibet Party secretary Wang Junzheng), and gave a speech.
Key points in Xi’s speech include:
Overall guiding principles
- The Tibet local government must fully implement the CCP’s strategy for governing Tibet in the new era.
- The Tibet local government must continue to focus deeply on the “four major tasks,” namely, stability, development, ecology, and strengthening border defense.
Review of achievements and congratulations
- During the 60 years since the founding of the Tibet Autonomous Region, under the leadership of Party Central and with support from across the country, Tibet has achieved major accomplishments, and “the snowy plateau has undergone earth-shaking changes.”
- Xi extended warm congratulations and sincere greetings to cadres and the masses of all ethnic groups in Tibet on behalf of Party Central.
Maintaining stability and unity
- Governing, stabilizing, and developing Tibet requires maintaining political security, social stability, ethnic unity, and religious harmony.
- Strengthen the sense of community for the Chinese nation, tell Tibet’s stories in the new era, and enhance the “five identities” (identification with the great motherland, the Chinese nation, Chinese culture, the CCP, and socialism with Chinese characteristics).
- Build a national model zone for ethnic unity and progress, promote the national common language, and encourage exchanges and integration among ethnic groups, as well as two-way exchanges between Tibet and inland regions.
- Guide Tibetan Buddhism to adapt to a socialist society.
- Strengthen Party leadership in social governance and consolidate grassroots stability.
Promoting high-quality development
- Proceed from reality and develop plateau-specific advantageous industries (such as agriculture and animal husbandry specific to Tibet, clean energy, resource-based processing, modern services, and cultural-tourism integration).
- Advance major projects in a strong and orderly manner, including the Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower project and the Sichuan-Tibet railway.
- Strengthen ecological civilization construction.
- Coordinate new urbanization and comprehensive rural revitalization.
- Continue post-disaster reconstruction in Dingri (Tingri) County.
Strengthening Party leadership and Party-building
- Uphold Party leadership and strengthen Party building using Xi Jinping Thought to “concentrate the heart and cast the soul” (凝心鑄魂). Guide cadres and masses to listen to the Party and follow the Party.
- Carry forward the “Old Tibet Spirit” and the “Two Roads Spirit” (formed during the construction of the Sichuan-Tibet and Qinghai-Tibet highways).
- Give full play to the role of grassroots Party organizations as fighting fortresses.
- Apply the lessons of Party Central’s Eight-point Regulation to improve conduct-building mechanisms.
- Implement the responsibility of comprehensively and strictly governing the Party.
Aug. 21
PRC state media reported that around 20,000 people gathered at Potala Palace Square in Lhasa to celebrate the 60th anniversary of the founding of the Tibet Autonomous Region and hold a grand mass parade. Xi Jinping attended the events.
In a speech at the celebration, Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference chairman Wang Huning said that Party Central with Comrade Xi Jinping at the core has comprehensively strengthened work in Tibet since the 18th Party Congress and Tibet’s economic and social development has achieved historic accomplishments.
Wang urged Tibet to adhere to Xi Jinping Thought as guidance, fully implement the spirit of the 20th Party Congress and the Third Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee, deeply understand the political principles centered on Xi Jinping, and focus on the four major tasks of stability, development, ecological protection, and border security, in order to build a socialist modernized new Tibet.
Our take
Xi Jinping’s trip to Tibet marks a notable departure from precedent. Since the PRC’s establishment of the Tibet Autonomous Region on Sept. 1, 1965, anniversary celebrations have typically been attended by a central delegation led by senior officials such as State Council vice premiers or chairs of the CPPCC. Xi is the first CCP paramount leader to personally attend the TAR founding anniversary celebrations.
Xi’s decision to attend a “non-essential” celebration intensified speculation that he was “losing power.” Some commentators — who were already linking his two-day “absence” post-Beidaihe retreat to his supposed poor health, weakened political standing, and even a “silent coup” in Zhongnanhai — scrutinized the appearance of Xi and his entourage at Lhasa for “unusual” signs and prognosticated a deeper political crisis for him.
Misreadings of political signs aside, those in the “Xi losing power” camp do not appear to have recognized that the anniversary celebration in Lhasa is not as “non-essential” as it seems given the increased prioritization of Tibet in the CCP’s strategy and plans. A closer look at domestic and external developments shows that Xi visited Tibet to signal the region’s growing importance to the PRC and encourage greater development, and his trip was not a revelation of political vulnerability.
Domestic priorities
Once a peripheral buffer zone, Tibet is now a “core asset” integral to the PRC’s long-term economic, geopolitical, and stability goals. The Xi leadership appears to have ambitions to achieve the full “assimilation and expansion” (i.e. deeper integration of the border region with the regime) of Tibet by 2049.
Below are some brief points about Tibet’s growing importance to the PRC and the CCP’s ongoing efforts to integrate the border region with the rest of the country:
Growing economic relevance
Historically, Tibet’s economy was underdeveloped, with heavy reliance on central government subsidies and minimal GDP contribution. Today, Tibet is positioned as a cornerstone of China’s clean energy and western development strategies, and is projected to drive national growth through mega-projects and supporting the PRC’s “dual carbon” goals (carbon peak by 2030, neutrality by 2060).
In 2024, Tibet’s GDP reached 276.5 billion yuan ($38.4 billion), 155 times its 1965 level at constant prices, with an average annual growth of 8.9%. Projects like a 1.2 trillion yuan hydropower dam on the Yarlung Tsangpo River underscore Tibet’s role in clean energy and infrastructure-led growth.
Demographic shifts
Tibet’s population, approximately 3 million in 2010 with a high Tibetan ethnic proportion, is undergoing significant change due to the CCP’s promotion of Han Chinese migration and urbanization. The Party has targeted the move of an additional 15 million people to the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, with an urbanization rate of 57 percent. This demographic strategy aims to integrate Tibet into national development frameworks, enhancing economic and social cohesion.
Cultural assimilation
Unlike past passive approaches to assimilation of ethnic Tibetans through political propaganda and religious control, the CCP now integrates them into its national agenda through controlling education, language, and cultural policies. These efforts promote “Chinese nation-building” and the “history of Chinese ethnic development,” actively countering separatism by embedding Tibetan identity within a broader national narrative.
Stability and control
The Tibet local government previously relied on military suppression to “maintain stability” in the region. Today, the local government employs a dual approach of technology and economic development in creating a “gray zone” control network. This network leverages advanced surveillance and economic incentives to preempt unrest, while constantly emphasizing “political stability, social harmony, and ethnic unity” (政治安定、社會穩定、民族團結).
Geopolitical and military importance
Historically functioning in a passive role as a defensive buffer, Tibet is now viewed as a proactive “strategic gateway” to South Asia. Dual-use infrastructure such as the Sichuan-Tibet Railway strengthens border defense and geopolitical influence, particularly amid tensions with India. Additionally, military modernization and projects like the Yarlung Tsangpo dam enhance China’s regional presence.
External moves
Xi Jinping is not merely signaling Tibet’s increased importance to the PRC with his recent trip to Lhasa. By demonstrating his leadership’s commitment to developing the region, Xi is likely looking to court India with impending “economic prosperity” and advance the CCP’s geopolitical agendas.
Beijing likely senses an opportunity to shift turbulent geopolitical winds more in its favor following a recent rift between India and the United States. In early August, the Trump administration hit India with 50 percent tariffs, of which 25 percent were due to the latter’s continued purchases of Russian oil. India condemned the move, and subsequently signaled that it was drawing closer to China. Following PRC foreign minister Wang Yi’s two-day visit (Aug. 18 to Aug. 19) to New Delhi for the 24th round of border dispute talks with Indian national security adviser Ajit Doval, both sides announced that they were resuming direct flights, as well as stepping up trade and investment flows. As major manufacturing powers, closer PRC-India ties could mitigate trade conflict pressures with the U.S. and raise the cost of U.S. tariffs on their goods.
But even as the PRC emphasizes economic collaboration and goodwill with India, it may find itself with an uphill climb in fracturing the U.S.-India alliance and bringing India firmly into its orbit. The Xi leadership’s prioritization of building a “strong military” and constant pursuit of “gray zone” tactics on China’s borders means that the PRC will always find friction with its wary neighbors. Also, despite the PRC’s focus on economic collaboration with India, New Delhi is undoubtedly aware of the latent threat posed by the Yarlung Tsangpo River dam and its potential to control water flows critical to downstream regions. The dam underscores strategic tensions between India and the PRC, complicating the balance between cooperation and competition.
Personnel highlights strategic intent
Key personnel in the central delegation that travelled with Xi Jinping to Lhasa
underscores the visit’s strategic intent beyond mere celebration.
The central leaders who accompanied Xi during his Tibet visit include:
- Wang Huning (Politburo Standing Committee member, chairman of the CPPCC; chief overseer of United Front work).
- Cai Qi (Politburo Standing Committee member, secretary of the CCP Secretariat, overall in charge of Party affairs and organization).
- Li Ganjie (United Front Work Department head; oversees United Front work).
- He Lifeng (Vice premier, director of the Central Financial and Economic Affairs Commission, head of the Central Financial Commission; overall in charge of finance and commerce).
- Zhang Guoqing (Vice premier; overall in charge of industry, information technology, science, and defense-related industries).
- Wang Xiaohong (Minister of Public Security; overall in charge of public security and law enforcement).
- Losang Jamcan (Vice chairman of the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress; overall in charge of ethnic affairs [likely with a focus on Tibetan matters]).
- Hu Chunhua (CPPCC vice chairman; oversees United Front work).
- Zhang Shengmin (Secretary of the Central Military Commission Discipline Inspection Commission; overall in charge of military discipline and anti-corruption).
The composition of the high-level delegation accompanying Xi to Tibet reflects a deliberate strategy to advance the CCP’s control and development in the territory across multiple domains:
Ethnic relations
Losang Gyaltsen’s presence symbolizes the CCP’s commitment to “ethnic unity,” reinforced by Wang Huning, Hu Chunhua, and Li Ganjie’s oversight of united front policies and ethnic solidarity.
In his speech in Tibet, Xi Jinping emphasized “governing, stabilizing, and developing Tibet” and aligning Tibetan Buddhism with socialist principles, signaling a focus on cultural integration to strengthen national cohesion.
Ideology
Cai Qi’s role in overseeing ideology and party affairs drives the promotion of a “shared Chinese national identity” through standardized language, education, and sinicized religion, as well as countering separatism.
Xi’s call for Tibet to be a national “model zone for ethnic unity and progress” and promote “religious harmony” is amplified by Cai’s attendance, reinforcing ideological control.
Finance
He Lifeng’s economic planning expertise supports significant financial injections into Tibet, such as the 1.2 trillion yuan Yarlung Tsangpo River dam project. The 15th Five-Year Plan is also expected to expand credit and infrastructure investment, stabilizing Tibet’s frontier economy and supporting national growth objectives.
Technology
Zhang Guoqing will likely focus on industrial and technological development in Tibet, including the promotion of high-altitude industries, clean energy, and cultural-tourism integration. Meanwhile, the Yarlung Tsangpo River dam project lays a foundation for technological advancements, attracting high-tech industries to Tibet and aligning with China’s “dual carbon” goals (carbon peak by 2030, neutrality by 2060).
Stability maintenance
Wang Xiaohong was likely in Tibet to boost social governance, counter-terrorism, and stability measures, as well as the building of a robust “security foundation” to prevent border instability and internal unrest. This aligns with the shift towards implementing a technology-driven “gray zone” control network in Tibet.
Military deployment
Zhang Shengmin’s oversight of military discipline enhances border defense and infrastructure, such as the Sichuan-Tibet Railway and “border strengthening” initiatives. Amid the Yarlung Tsangpo dam’s strategic context, such work bolsters the PLA’s presence to address India-related border risks.
Zhang’s prominence could also signal his future elevation to CMC Political Work Department director or even CMC vice chairman overseeing political work.
