1 Qiushi article highlights Xi’s control over medium- and long-term planning
Qiushi publishes Xi article on economic planning
June 15
Qiushi, the CCP Central Committee ideological journal, published in its 12th issue of 2025 an article by Xi Jinping with the headline, “Guiding Economic and Social Development with Medium- and Long-term Planning is an Important Approach of Our Party in Governing the Country (用中長期規劃指導經濟社會發展是我們黨治國理政的一種重要方式). The article contains excerpts from key remarks by Xi on medium- and long-term planning made between October 2015 and April 2025.
Some noteworthy points in the piece include:
‘Medium- and Long-term planning as a core approach of CCP governance’
- Scientifically formulating and steadily implementing Five-Year Plans is a key governance practice of the CCP and a systemic advantage of socialism with Chinese characteristics.
- From the 1st Five-Year Plan to the current 14th Five-Year Plan, the consistent theme has been the effort to build China into a modern socialist country.
- The comprehensive goal of building a modern socialist country is strategically arranged in two steps:
- Step one: Use three Five-Year Plan periods from 2020 to 2035 to basically achieve socialist modernization.
- Step two: Use another three Five-Year Plan periods from 2035 to the middle of this century to fully build China into a prosperous, strong, democratic, culturally advanced, harmonious, and beautiful modern socialist country.
- By 2035, China’s overarching development goals are:
- A significant leap in economic strength, scientific and technological capabilities, and overall national power, with per capita GDP reaching a new level and attaining the level of moderately developed countries.
- Achieving high-level self-reliance and strength in science and technology, placing China among the world’s leading innovative countries.
- Establishing a modern economic system and a new development pattern, with basic realization of new-type industrialization, informatization, urbanization, and agricultural modernization.
- Basically realizing the modernization of the national governance system and governance capacity, with a more robust system of whole-process people’s democracy, and the fundamental establishment of a law-based country, government, and society.
- Becoming a powerful nation in education, science and technology, talent, culture, sports, and health, with notably enhanced national cultural soft power.
- A happier and better life for the people, with a new rise in per capita disposable income, a significantly larger middle-income group, equal access to basic public services, modern living conditions in rural areas, long-term social stability, and substantial progress in common prosperity and well-rounded human development.
- Widespread adoption of green production and lifestyles, with carbon emissions peaking and then declining steadily, a fundamental improvement in the ecological environment, and the basic realization of the “Beautiful China” vision.
- A comprehensive strengthening of the national security system and capabilities, and basic modernization of national defense and the armed forces.
‘Top-level design of Chinese-style modernization’
- The 20th Party Congress report elaborated on the characteristics, essential requirements, and fundamental principles of Chinese-style modernization, which serves as the highest-level design for promoting modernization. Chinese-style modernization is to be advanced in phases and across different fields, with precise planning to set targets and tasks for each area.
- Plans must discern global development trends, grasp the people’s aspirations, and follow economic and social laws to ensure the unity of timeliness, regularity, and creativity — achieving coherence across timeframes, levels, and content.
People-centered approach: Consulting the public
- The people’s aspirations for a better life are the goal of the planning process. Good plans should reflect the will of the people, following the principle of “from the masses, to the masses” (從群眾中來，到群眾中去). Five-Year Plans touch on all aspects of economic and social development, and should incorporate social expectations, grassroots wisdom, expert opinions, and on-the-ground experience.
The 14th Five-Year Plan was the first to openly solicit public input via the internet. This approach will continue and be improved for the 15th Five-Year Plan.
High-quality development as the central theme
- High-quality development is the central theme, based on the scientific judgment that China is still in the primary stage of socialism and faces imbalances and inadequacies in development.
- High-quality development emphasizes improving development quality, optimizing structure, achieving technological self-reliance, building a modern economic system, and forming a new development pattern.
Execution and evaluation mechanisms
- Planning must avoid formalism and ensure effective execution and implementation. Local plans should be tailored to actual conditions and seek truth from facts, avoiding excessive or unrealistic targets.
- The 15th Five-Year Plan must set scientific goals that align with the broader objective of achieving socialist modernization by 2035.
Strategic foresight in the 15th Five-Year Plan
- 2025 marks the final year of the 14th Five-Year Plan and the preparatory year for the 15th. It is necessary to assess the achievements of the 14th Five-Year Plan and scientifically formulate the 15th Five-Year Plan in advance.
Backdrop
The Qiushi article comes amid persistent deflationary pressures and other economic problems in China, as well as escalated Sino-U.S. trade tensions and a tariff war.
Our take
1. As the official publication of Party Central, Qiushi conveys the latest policy directions and political signals to CCP members and cadres. The articles in Qiushi are usually highly authoritative and seek to unify thought and build consensus within the Party.
We believe that the Xi leadership is looking to convey the following with Xi Jinping’s June 15 article on economic planning:
i) The Qiushi article’s review of the “historical achievements” in Xi’s previous Five-Year Plans (“poverty alleviation,” “rapid economic development,” etc.) is likely intended to strengthen Party members’ confidence in Xi’s “Chinese-style modernization” and other current policies.
ii) The Qiushi article emphasizes Xi’s central role in policy formulation by emphasizing the continuity and importance of medium- and long-term planning as the core approach to governance. The article also gives specific examples of Xi leading policy formulation, such as mentioning that Xi chaired a symposium on the upcoming 15th Five-Year Plan in Shanghai and inspected enterprises in the city in April 2025.
iii) The Qiushi article likely intends to send an unambiguous political signal that Xi Jinping’s leadership position remains secure and China’s economic policies will adhere to their established course, undeterred by external pressures or internal challenges.
Aside from building the Xi cult of personality, it cannot be ruled out that the Qiushi article also seeks to shut down any disquiet in the Party caused by incessant rumors and speculation circulating in overseas circles that Xi Jinping has “lost power.”
On a related note, the Qiushi article indirectly suggests that Xi’s 14-day “disappearance” between late May and early June could have been related to economic work. We previously analyzed that Xi could have vanished from public view to focus on U.S.-China trade negotiations or deal with rapidly worsening crises in the regime, including economic and social problems.
2. Typically, proposals for PRC Five-Year Plans are discussed and adopted at the fifth plenary session of central committees. For instance, the 14th Five-Year Plan was deliberated at the Fifth Plenum of the 19th Central Committee in 2020. But given Sino-U.S. trade tensions and China’s economic difficulties, it cannot be ruled out that the CCP authorities could hold advanced discussions of the 15th Five-Year Plan at the Fourth Plenum of the 20th Central Committee later this year. Below are some reasons why:
i) The June 15 Qiushi article notes that 2025 marks the conclusion of the 14th Five-Year Plan and is the planning year for the 15th Five-Year Plan. Xi Jinping’s chairing of a symposium on the 15th Five-Year Plan in Shanghai also indicates that preparatory work for the 15th Five-Year Plan has begun ahead of schedule.
ii) China’s current economic situation is dire and necessitates the early setting of policy direction. By discussing the guiding principles and key areas of the 15th Five-Year Plan at the Fourth Plenum, Beijing could potentially stabilize market expectations.
iii) The fourth plenary session of central committees usually focuses on institutional reforms and modernization of the governance system. Meanwhile, the 15th Five-Year Plan aligns with the CCP’s goal of completing reform tasks outlined at the Third Plenum of the 20th Central Committee by 2029 (the 80th anniversary of the PRC’s founding). Therefore, the preliminary framework for the 15th Five-Year Plan could potentially be integrated with discussions of institutional reform at the Fourth Plenum of the 20th Central Committee. There is precedent of this. Governance system modernization was discussed at the Fourth Plenum of the 19th Central Committee in 2019, laying the institutional foundation for the 14th Five-Year Plan that was adopted at the Fifth Plenum the following year.
If there are indeed advanced deliberations of the 15th Five-Year Plan at the Fourth Plenum of the 20th Central Committee, those could focus on the CCP’s so-called “top-level design” (strategic, high-level planning and policy framework developed by the central leadership to guide national development, reforms, and governance) and critical areas of economic development (technological innovation, manufacturing of advanced technologies, etc.).
3. The Qiushi article hints at the areas that the CCP authorities could address in the 15th Five-Year Plan as Beijing charts a development path to address China’s current economic problems.
Specific challenges and corresponding strategies could include:
- Sluggish real estate market: China’s real estate sector woes impact the fiscal revenue of local governments and the value of Chinese people’s assets (“wealth effect”). The 15th Five-Year Plan could include measures to stabilize the real estate market and boost domestic demand, including promoting affordable housing, urbanization reforms, and rural revitalization.
- Slow consumption recovery: China’s growth is affected by weak consumer confidence and lackluster domestic demand. The 15th Five-Year-Plan could attempt to bolster consumption by introducing measures that increase residents’ incomes and improve social security systems (pensions, healthcare, etc.). The Qiushi article’s mention of “seeking public input” suggests that the Plan will prioritize people’s livelihood needs, such as improving equal access to basic public services.
- Growing external pressures: U.S.-China technological competition, trade barriers, and supply chain disruptions pose challenges to China’s export-oriented industries. The Qiushi article’s call for technological self-reliance suggests that the 15th Five-Year Plan could have measures to increase investment in strategic sectors like new energy, artificial intelligence, and advanced semiconductors.
- Aging demographic: An aging population exacerbates labor shortages and increases pension burdens. Per the Qiushi article’s call to build a “talent-strong nation” (人才強國), the 15th Five-Year Plan could promote education, talent development, and labor productivity improvements.
- Green transition: China needs to accelerate the development of low-carbon technology if it is to hit its peak carbon target. Per the Qiushi article’s pledge of “green development” and the building of a “Beautiful China,” the 15th Five-Year Plan could advance new energy and green manufacturing.
