Share on facebook
Share on twitter
Share on telegram
Share on whatsapp
Share on linkedin
Share on print
Share on email

Retired Chinese General Says US and North Korea at Risk of Clashing in the Next 3 Months

◎ Wang Hongguang’s assessment suggests that China is getting prepared for American intervention in North Korea.


Wang Hongguang, the former deputy commander of the Nanjing Military Region and known military hawk, said at the annual meeting of state mouthpiece Global Times on Dec. 16 that the Korean Peninsula is heading towards a serious military conflict.

Wang believes that the Korean Peninsula would be in a state of high-risk during the U.S.-South Korea annual “Key Resolve/Foal Eagle” military exercise in March. He also believes that Jilin Daily running a full page of information on nuclear defense knowledge and protection measures on Dec. 6 is, in fact, a signal for all of China to be mentally prepared for war.

The backdrop:
1. Wang became Nanjing Military Region deputy commander in December 2005, and attained the rank of lieutenant general in July 2007. He retired in December 2012. Wang belongs in the faction of Chinese military hawks, and famously told reporters at the Two Sessions meeting this year that the Chinese Communist Party should “liberate” Taiwan the moment America deploys the THAAD anti-ballistic missile defense system on the island.

2. On Dec. 1, Politburo Standing Committee member Wang Yang told Japanese opposition party leader Natsuo Yamaguchi that China and North Korea are in an antagonistic relationship. Wang also said that China strongly objects to Pyongyang’s nuclear provocations but doesn’t wish to see chaos and conflict in North Korea.

3. Both Xi Jinping and South Korean leader Moon Jae-in expressed their unwillingness to see conflict on the Korean Peninsula when Moon visited Beijing from Dec. 13 to Dec. 16.

4. According to commercial satellite imagery, North Korea has been carrying out a high-level of activity at the West Portal of the Punggye-ri Nuclear Test Site since its sixth nuclear test in September. This suggests that Pyongyang doesn’t plan on halting its nuclear testing.

Our take: Wang Hongguang’s assessment suggests that China is getting prepared for American intervention in North Korea. Based on our research, North Korea has no intention of abandoning its nuclear program, and may even have obtained technological support from Russia.

Meanwhile, America appears to be preparing to use the military option against North Korea. There is a very high probability of U.S. intervention if Pyongyang continues to test ballistic missiles or nuclear devices.

“Your publication insights tremendously help us complete our regular analysis on in-depth issues of major importance. ”
Ms. Nicoleta Buracinschi, Embassy of Romania to the People’s Republic of China
"I’m a very happy, satisfied subscriber to your service and all the deep information it provides to increase our understanding. SinoInsider is profoundly helping to alter the public landscape when it comes to the PRC."
James Newman, Former U.S. Navy cryptologist
“Prof. Ming’s information about the Sino-U.S. trade war is invaluable for us in Taiwan’s technology industry. Our company basically acted on Prof. Ming’s predictions and enlarged our scale and enriched our product lines. That allowed us to deal capably with larger orders from China in 2019. ”
Mr. Chiu, Realtek R&D Center
“I am following China’s growing involvement in the Middle East, seeking to gain a better understanding of China itself and the impact of domestic constraints on its foreign policy. I have found SinoInsider quite helpful in expanding my knowledge and enriching my understanding of the issues at stake.”
Ehud Yaari, Lafer International Fellow, The Washington Institute
“SinoInsider’s research on the CCP examines every detail in great depth and is a very valuable reference. Foreign researchers will find SinoInsider’s research helpful in understanding what is really going on with the CCP and China. ”
Baterdene, Researcher, The National Institute for Security Studies (Mongolian)
“The forecasts of Prof. Chu-cheng Ming and the SinoInsider team are an invaluable resource in guiding our news reporting direction and anticipating the next moves of the Chinese and Hong Kong governments.”
Chan Miu-ling, Radio Television Hong Kong China Team Deputy Leader
“SinoInsider always publishes interesting and provocative work on Chinese elite politics. It is very worthwhile to follow the work of SinoInsider to get their take on factional struggles in particular.”
Lee Jones, Reader in International Politics, Queen Mary University of London
“[SinoInsider has] been very useful in my class on American foreign policy because it contradicts the widely accepted argument that the U.S. should work cooperatively with China. And the whole point of the course is to expose students to conflicting approaches to contemporary major problems.”
Roy Licklider, Adjunct Professor of Political Science, Columbia University
“As a China-based journalist, SinoInsider is to me a very reliable source of information to understand deeply how the CCP works and learn more about the factional struggle and challenges that Xi Jinping may face. ”
Sebastien Ricci, AFP correspondent for China & Mongolia
“SinoInsider offers an interesting perspective on the Sino-U.S. trade war and North Korea. Their predictions are often accurate, which is definitely very helpful.”
Sebastien Ricci, AFP correspondent for China & Mongolia
“I have found SinoInsider to provide much greater depth and breadth of coverage with regard to developments in China. The subtlety of the descriptions of China's policy/political processes is absent from traditional media channels.”
John Lipsky, Peter G. Peterson Distinguished Scholar, Kissinger Center for Global Affairs
“My teaching at Cambridge and policy analysis for the UK audience have been informed by insights from your analyzes. ”
Dr Kun-Chin Lin, University Lecturer in Politics,
Deputy Director of the Centre for Geopolitics, Cambridge University
" SinoInsider's in-depth and nuanced analysis of Party dynamics is an excellent template to train future Sinologists with a clear understanding that what happens in the Party matters."
Stephen Nagy, Senior Associate Professor, International Christian University
“ I find Sinoinsider particularly helpful in instructing students about the complexities of Chinese politics and what elite competition means for the future of the US-China relationship.”
Howard Sanborn, Professor, Virginia Military Institute
“SinoInsider has been one of my most useful (and enjoyable) resources”
James Newman, Former U.S. Navy cryptologist
“Professor Ming and his team’s analyses of current affairs are very far-sighted and directionally accurate. In the present media environment where it is harder to distinguish between real and fake information, SinoInsider’s professional perspectives are much needed to make sense of a perilous and unpredictable world. ”
Liu Cheng-chuan, Professor Emeritus, National Chiayi University
Previous
Next