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19th Congress Results: SinoInsider Predicted 81% of CCP Central Committee

◎ We predicted the election of 165 of the 204 Central Committee members, or an 81% accuracy rate.


The new Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Central Committee was unveiled on Oct. 24 before the closing of the 19th Party Congress.

We predicted the election of 165 of the 204 Central Committee members, or an 81% accuracy rate. (See our Central Committee forecast here.)

Why it matters: Aside from the most senior CCP leaders and military generals, the Central Committee is comprised mainly of key provincial-level officials.

In other words, members of the Central Committee are the ones responsible for implementing the policies of the Xi Jinping administration. Also, more than half of these officials have direct interactions with businesses.

Our take: Learning who the Central Committee members are and their political background is essential for companies and investors who are looking to uncover China’s opportunities and risks.

How we came up with the prediction: Our understanding of the core issue behind elite Chinese politics today allows us to forecast personnel movement with a high degree of accuracy.

Contact us to learn more about the new Central Committee and what it might mean for your business.

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Dr Kun-Chin Lin, University Lecturer in Politics,
Deputy Director of the Centre for Geopolitics, Cambridge University
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