What Trump’s Second Term Means for China
Xi and the CCP will almost certainly find their troubles compounded should Trump press ahead with his China agenda over the next four years.
OUR RESEARCH
Politics Watch: Why the Hong Kong Extradition Bill was Withdrawn and What it Means for the Future
◎ Carrie Lam has technically not made any concessions yet to the protesters.
Politics Watch: Why Xi is Warning of ‘Risks and Challenges,’ Wants ‘Struggle Spirit’ from CCP Cadres
◎ Xi is making things very hard for himself and the PRC by defaulting to Party orthodoxy.
Politics Watch: Fourth Plenum Timing and Agenda Confirm Political Crisis in China
◎ It is becoming increasingly clear that the Sino-U.S. trade agreement has placed the Xi leadership in a Catch-22 situation.
Politics Watch: Beijing’s Struggles with CCP Orthodoxy and Factional Fighting Bode Ill for Hong Kong and the Trade Deal
◎ The Hong Kong protesters and the CCP are on course for a disastrous collision.
China 2019 Outlook: Over 70% of Our Predictions Verified as of Q2
◎ As of Q2 2019, 41 of our 58 predictions (70.7 percent) have been verified.
Geopolitics Watch: The CCP ‘Advances to Retreat’ on Hong Kong
◎ The CCP’s goal of “advancing to retreat” is to calm things down in the city and focus its energies instead on other pressing matters, such as the Sino-U.S. trade war and the 2020 Taiwan presidential election.
Hong Kong Protests Present Trump, Xi with Painful Choices
◎ President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping both face critical decisions on the looming crisis in Hong Kong.
Geopolitics Watch: Risks Grow for Hong Kong and America as the CCP Calls Trump’s China Bluff
◎ If the CCP has identified that Trump will do anything to get his trade deal, they will definitely call his bluff and turn the trade deal into his greatest weakness.
Geopolitics Watch: Analyzing the Threat of PRC Intervention in Hong Kong and Trump’s Tariff Delay
◎ Trump’s ambiguous messaging on the Hong Kong issue will embolden the CCP to keep pushing the limits in suppressing the protesters.
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