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China 2026 Outlook Review

◎ We made 32 predictions covering eight topics in our China 2025 Outlook. Twenty-seven of those predictions were verified over the year, giving us a forecasting accuracy of 84.4 percent.

Xi Jinping remained firmly in control of the CCP and the Chinese regime in 2025 despite endless rumors stemming from Chinese diaspora media that he was “losing power.”

Meanwhile, China’s economy continued to worsen in 2025 even as Beijing introduced policies to reverse the decline.

Summary

Politics: 4 predictions, 4 verified

Economics: 10 predictions, 8 verified

Military: 2 predictions, 2 verified

Society: 4 predictions, 3 verified

Hong Kong: 1 predictions, 1 verified

Cross-Strait relations: 3 predictions, 3 verified

US-China relations: 6 predictions, 5 verified

China and the world: 2 predictions, 2 verified 

Politics: 4 predictions, 4 verified

1. Xi Jinping’s enemies at home and abroad will continue to attack Xi over his governance failures and growing authoritarianism. Attacks on Xi could include the spreading of political rumors about Xi and his cronies (purges, assassinations, Xi looking to invade Taiwan, etc.) through various channels (Chinese language and Western media, social media, etc.).   VERIFIED  

  •  

Economy: 10 predictions, 8 verified

1. Xi Jinping’s enemies at home and abroad will continue to attack Xi over his governance failures and growing authoritarianism. Attacks on Xi could include the spreading of political rumors about Xi and his cronies (purges, assassinations, Xi looking to invade Taiwan, etc.) through various channels (Chinese language and Western media, social media, etc.).   VERIFIED  

  •  

Military: 2 predictions, 2 verified

1. Xi Jinping’s enemies at home and abroad will continue to attack Xi over his governance failures and growing authoritarianism. Attacks on Xi could include the spreading of political rumors about Xi and his cronies (purges, assassinations, Xi looking to invade Taiwan, etc.) through various channels (Chinese language and Western media, social media, etc.).   VERIFIED  

  •  

Society: 4 predictions, 3 verified

1. Xi Jinping’s enemies at home and abroad will continue to attack Xi over his governance failures and growing authoritarianism. Attacks on Xi could include the spreading of political rumors about Xi and his cronies (purges, assassinations, Xi looking to invade Taiwan, etc.) through various channels (Chinese language and Western media, social media, etc.).   VERIFIED  

  •  

Hong Kong: 1 predictions, 1 verified

1. Xi Jinping’s enemies at home and abroad will continue to attack Xi over his governance failures and growing authoritarianism. Attacks on Xi could include the spreading of political rumors about Xi and his cronies (purges, assassinations, Xi looking to invade Taiwan, etc.) through various channels (Chinese language and Western media, social media, etc.).   VERIFIED  

  •  

Cross-Strait relations: 3 predictions, 3 verified

1. Xi Jinping’s enemies at home and abroad will continue to attack Xi over his governance failures and growing authoritarianism. Attacks on Xi could include the spreading of political rumors about Xi and his cronies (purges, assassinations, Xi looking to invade Taiwan, etc.) through various channels (Chinese language and Western media, social media, etc.).   VERIFIED  

  •  

US-China relations: 6 predictions, 5 verified

1. Xi Jinping’s enemies at home and abroad will continue to attack Xi over his governance failures and growing authoritarianism. Attacks on Xi could include the spreading of political rumors about Xi and his cronies (purges, assassinations, Xi looking to invade Taiwan, etc.) through various channels (Chinese language and Western media, social media, etc.).   VERIFIED  

  •  

China and the world: 2 predictions, 1 verified

1. Xi Jinping’s enemies at home and abroad will continue to attack Xi over his governance failures and growing authoritarianism. Attacks on Xi could include the spreading of political rumors about Xi and his cronies (purges, assassinations, Xi looking to invade Taiwan, etc.) through various channels (Chinese language and Western media, social media, etc.).   VERIFIED  

  •  
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