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Risk Watch: Is Rare Earth Really China’s ‘Secret Weapon’ in a Trade War with America?
◎ The CCP wouldn’t risk a “rare earth war.”
Risk Watch: Can China Withstand a Trade War?
◎ The CCP faces seven pressing problems that render it unable to withstand a trade war with America.
The Geopolitical Contest Behind Kim Jong Un’s Visit to China
◎ Kim could have to broker a deal with Xi where he exchanges his nuclear weapons for a lifting of sanctions and keeping his rule over North Korea.
Politics Watch: Decoding China’s Party and State Institutional Reforms
◎ On March 21, Chinese state media published the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) plan for reforming its Party and state institutions.
Over 71% Accurate: Our Predictions for China’s New Vice Premiers, State Councilors, Ministers
◎ On March 19, the 13th National People’s Congress elected new vice premiers, state councilors, ministers, committee heads, and key central bank appointees.
How We Correctly Predicted Wang Qishan as China’s Vice President
◎ To rookie and veteran observers, the fate of Wang Qishan is perhaps one of the more perplexing developments in recent CCP politics.
Politics Watch: Xi’s Former Top Aide Obliquely Confirms Coup by Rivals
◎ Ding Xuexiang recently made statements that confirm the intensity of the ongoing CCP factional struggle.
Why Xi Jinping Removed China’s Presidential Term Limit
◎ We believe that the answer to why Xi removed term limits for the Chinese presidency can be found in an analysis of CCP factional struggle.
Risk Watch: Chinese Regulators Take Over Anbang, Prosecute Chairman Wu Xiaohui
◎ The prosecution of Wu Xiaohui is a classic “kill chickens to scare monkeys” move by the Xi administration.
China’s Five Strategies for Economic Expansion in the Digital Age
◎ The CCP appears to be simultaneously resolving China’s currency oversupply issue and seeking leadership in the digital currency while threatening the dollar’s dominance through five strategies.
Why Trump Security Team Sees a Nationalized 5G Network as Counter to China
◎ China’s response to America’s 5G push underscores the worries expressed in the leaked documents.
Risk Watch: Why 21 Chinese Provinces Cut Growth Estimates in 2018
◎ Twenty-one provinces are projecting lower growth as compared to their real GDP growth for 2017.
Why China’s Vice Presidency is an Office to Watch
◎ The vice presidency has emerged as a focal point in an intense factional struggle (neidou) in the upper echelons of the Chinese Communist Party.
Wang Qishan’s Second Act: US-China Relations
◎ Xi Jinping could bring back trusted ally and seasoned troubleshooter Wang Qishan ahead of schedule to help even the odds.
Trump’s National Security Strategy a Timely Counter to China’s Expansionism
◎ Trump’s NSS correctly identifies the challenge posed by “competitor” China to America’s domestic security and global influence.