In Beijing, Xi and Trump agree to ‘constructive strategic stability’ in US-China relations
CCP propaganda has used the Trump trip to subtly weave the narrative of a U.S. “change of heart” and a PRC “victory” in major power competition.
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Politics Watch: Arrest of Defecting Chinese Spy’s Boss Raises Risks for the CCP Regime
◎ If Xiang Xin is indeed a PRC military intelligence officer, then the implications of his being held in custody in Taiwan are potentially far-reaching and disastrous for the CCP regime.

Politics Watch: Defecting Chinese Spy Disrupts the CCP’s Political Interference Operations
◎ Wang Liqiang’s exposing of the CCP’s plans to interfere in the 2020 Taiwan presidential election will likely have a huge impact on the election.

Politics Watch: Mounting Political Risks Leave Xi, CCP Vulnerable to Regime-threatening Black Swans
◎ The external and domestic risks facing the CCP and Xi Jinping are coming to a head.

Risk Watch: A Watershed Moment Nears as the Hong Kong Situation Deteriorates
◎ The CCP, the Hong Kong government, and the Hong Kong police are “pouring oil on fire” by ramping up violent tactics and disinformation operations to suppress the Hong Kong anti-extradition bill protests.

Politics Watch: Early Analysis of the CCP Fourth Plenum
◎ The outcome of the Fourth Plenum suggests that it unfolded as we previously analyzed.

Geopolitics Watch: Pompeo’s ‘China Challenge’ Speech Hints at the Future of Sino-US Relations
◎ Secretary Pompeo’s speech affirms several trends in U.S. policy toward the PRC which we have identified since July 2018.

Politics Watch: Signs of Political Compromise and Crisis Surface as the PRC Marks its 70th Anniversary
◎ Why did Xi Jinping honor both Mao Zedong and a prominent Mao critic as part of the PRC’s 70th anniversary celebrations? We examine this and other signs.

Risk Watch: What the Police Shooting of a Protester Means for Hong Kong
◎ A Black Swan event for the Chinese regime could be just around the corner.

Risk Watch: The CCP Deploys ‘Chain Stratagems’ to Reassert Control Over Hong Kong
◎ Through the use of “chain stratagems,” the CCP is looking to turn a negative situation into a positive one for its regime.
