China Outlook 2026: Xi to Focus on Domestic Stability Amid External Volatility
Our China 2026 outlook contains 28 predictions covering eight categories.
Geopolitics

Geopolitics Watch: Will Xi Really Strike Back at the US in Trade Clash?
◎ Xi is posturing for the moment, but future action depends on U.S. action.

Geopolitics Watch: Sino-US Trade Conflict a Catalyst for Big Change in China
◎ We believe that a full-blown Sino-U.S. trade war is the catalyst that would set China on the path of tremendous change.

Geopolitics Watch: The Potentially Dire Implications of US Tariffs on China
◎ We examine the “worst-case scenario” of what the implementation of U.S. tariffs might mean for America, China, and North Korea.

Geopolitics Watch: Pompeo Meeting with Xi Forebodes Trade War Truce
◎ Trump could still press ahead with tariffs or reduced tariffs on June 15 if there is a lack of mutual trust between the two sides.

Geopolitics Watch: Trump-Kim Summit Affirms Our Peace and Denuclearization Prediction
◎ We predicted in March after Kim met Xi in Beijing that North Korea would denuclearize and a peace treaty to end the Korean war would be signed.

Geopolitics Watch: US Deal Puts ZTE on ‘Probation,’ Benefits US National Security
◎ The new ZTE deal could later be regarded as an important milestone by the U.S. in advancing national security interests in dealings with China.

Geopolitics Watch: Would Kim Jong Un Accept Senate Democrats Denuclearization Demands?
◎ The Democrats’ demands may end up helping Trump to seal a historic denuclearization and peace deal with Kim Jong Un.

Geopolitics Watch: Decoding China’s Statement on Sino-US Trade Talks
◎ China’s statement suggests a stalemate in the trade talks.

Geopolitics Watch: Trump Ramps up Pressure on China with Trade and Religious Freedom
◎ The Trump administration appears to be maneuvering the CCP into a position where it has to liberalize China to ensure regime survivability.
