China Outlook 2026: Xi to Focus on Domestic Stability Amid External Volatility
Our China 2026 outlook contains 28 predictions covering eight categories.
Geopolitics

Geopolitics Watch: In Canceling North Korea Summit, Trump Gets Two Birds With One Stone
◎ We believe that the Singapore summit could still be held in June.

Geopolitics Watch: Who Won the China-US Trade War?
◎ The U.S. is both winning the trade war with China and weakening the CCP regime.

Geopolitics Watch: With the Trade War ‘On Hold’, What’s Next for China, US?
◎ With the Sino-U.S. trade talks concluded, North Korea could quietly revert to a more agreeable tone.

Geopolitics Watch: Why is North Korea Canceling South Korean Talks, Threatening Trump-Kim Summit?
◎ North Korea’s “shock” move is hardly surprising.

Geopolitics Watch: Reading Trump’s ZTE Tweet, Sino-US Trade, and North Korea
◎ Trump’s ZTE tweet suggests that our read of America and China making good progress in trade talks is correct.

Geopolitics Watch: On Xi, Kim, Dalai Lama, North Korea, and the Sino-US Trade Talks
◎ The Trump administration still has cards to play to keep pressuring the CCP.

Politics Watch: Decoding the Outcome of Sino-US Trade Talks
◎ Should Beijing live up to its promises, the U.S. could eventually realize as much as 60 to 80 percent of its trade goals with China.

Geopolitics Watch: Behind Wang Yi’s Trip to North Korea
◎ Whether the coming peace talks would be trilateral or quadrilateral talks would hinge on the outcome of Sino-U.S. trade negotiations and the Trump-Kim summit.

Geopolitics Watch: Forecasting the Korean Peninsula Peace and Denuclearization Process
◎ Kim’s willingness to make the closure of the Punggyeri test site public and the scrapping of “Pyongyang time” are signs that he is sincere about denuclearization.
