China Outlook 2026: Xi to Focus on Domestic Stability Amid External Volatility
Our China 2026 outlook contains 28 predictions covering eight categories.
Geopolitics

Geopolitics Watch: How the CCP Can Interfere in US Elections
◎ We believe that Trump and his administration have identified a very real threat to the upcoming U.S. midterm elections.

Geopolitics Watch: In Third Summit with Moon, Kim Successfully Sells Irreversible Denuclearization to N. Korea
◎ Kim may want a second meeting with Trump sooner rather than later.

Win the Trade War with China to Deter a Real War
◎ The outcome of the trade confrontation, and the lessons it teaches, will greatly influence the likelihood of actual conflict in the future.

The ‘Taiwan Card’ and its Role in US-China Relations
◎ From Beijing’s perspective, virtually anything the United States does with Taiwan amounts to playing that particular “card.”

Geopolitics Watch: The CCP is Hijacking the ‘New Cold War’ Narrative
◎ In hijacking the new Cold War narrative, the CCP has resorted to old tropes and mixed in new disinformation

Geopolitics Watch: Kim’s Outreach to Trump Bodes Well for North Korea Denuclearization
◎ Kim’s latest gestures are a positive omen of further advancement in the denuclearization process.

Trump Must Set ‘America Firm’ Course with China to Protect Taiwan and US Interests
◎ China scholars and policy practitioners increasingly are accepting a painful and long-denied reality: four decades of Western engagement have failed to induce critical changes in the domestic and foreign policies of the Chinese Communist Party.

Geopolitics Watch: PRC ‘Taiwan Invasion’ Propaganda Backfires
◎ China could see its international standing diminish as America and Taiwan draw closer and take firmer action to counter the CCP’s Taiwan strategy.

Geopolitics Watch: US Affirms Existential Nature of the CCP Threat
◎ The U.S. recognizes that the China threat is everywhere and existential, and has made addressing the issue the top priority.
