China Outlook 2026: Xi to Focus on Domestic Stability Amid External Volatility
Our China 2026 outlook contains 28 predictions covering eight categories.
Geopolitics

Geopolitics Watch: Xi Summoning Kim to Beijing a Goodwill Gesture to America
◎ Xi could have summoned Kim to Beijing to signal cooperation with America on North Korean denuclearization and improve the odds of successful trade talks.

No ‘Middle Way’ in US-China Struggle — China Must Change
◎ From its establishment, Communist China has been committed to the destruction or the drastic reconstruction of the global order

Geopolitics Watch: Why Trump Cited National Security as a Reason to Intervene in the Huawei Case
◎ The 90-day trade talks, if successful, will tackle U.S. national security concerns at its root.

Politics Watch: Xi’s Delivery of Trade Commitments Hinges on the CCP Factional Struggle
◎ Xi faces very high levels of political risk in the next 90 days.

Geopolitics Watch: Did Trump or Xi Win at the G20?
◎ Xi was likely seeking a pause going into the G20. The concessions which he made to gain the pause suggests a “pyrrhic victory.”

In the New China-US Cold War, Will Xi or Trump Blink First?
◎ Pence’s message to Beijing was firm and clear: “The United States … will not change course until China changes its ways.”

Geopolitics Watch: The CCP Turns to the Red Matrix in Full Court Press Against Trump
◎ Using the Red Matrix aggressively is a double-edged sword for the CCP when the U.S. is on high-alert for CCP influence and interference operations.

Geopolitics Watch: Trump-Xi Meeting at G20 Won’t Curb US Pressure
◎ Xi Jinping and Donald Trump likely find it to be in their interest to hold a summit at the G20 meeting in Buenos Aires.

Geopolitics Watch: Did the CCP’s ‘Gamble’ on the US Midterm Election Pay Off?
◎ The midterm results should have little effect on influencing the Sino-U.S. trade war.
