China Outlook 2026: Xi to Focus on Domestic Stability Amid External Volatility
Our China 2026 outlook contains 28 predictions covering eight categories.
Geopolitics

Geopolitics Watch: What Xi and Wang’s Speeches Mean for the Trade War
◎ Xi may be planning to make concessions on trade, but the CCP system may not let him give up too much.

Trump’s Tough-love Policy for China
◎ Trump’s increasingly hard-nosed policies can steer China away from a course that is leading inevitably to outright conflict with the West.

The CCP Fourth Plenum and Geopolitics
◎ The plenary session after the Two Sessions in the year after a Party Congress typically focuses on the economy.

The World is Trapped in Red China’s Matrix
◎ The Soviet Iron Curtain served to “block out” the West. The CCP’s Red Matrix works to “plug in” the world to a view of China that it controls.

Scrap the Third Communique With China, Keep the Six Assurances to Taiwan
◎ President Donald Trump has not hesitated to tear up international commitments made by his predecessors if he determines they are not in America’s national interest.

Geopolitics Watch: On Correctly Predicting Trends in China-US Relations
◎ “Strategic competition” between America and the PRC has stepped up several notches.

A Mini-Marshall Plan to Retain Allies
◎ Can the leaders of these small, weak nations be expected to muster greater courage and fortitude than one of the world’s great ethical icons?

Geopolitics Watch: America Presses on the CCP’s Vital Points
◎ CCP stubbornness and the Trump administration’s willingness to call out PRC misbehavior and apply pressure on the CCP’s vital points would lead to an escalation in Sino-U.S. tensions.

Kissinger’s Historic China Policy: A Retrospective
◎ For Kissinger, changing the Communist Party’s approach to domestic governance was separate from, and subservient to, global realpolitik concerns.
