China Faces Greater Risks as US Increases Pressure
Mounting geopolitical and economic risks for the PRC will eventually transform into political risks for the Xi leadership.
Geopolitics
Geopolitics Watch: Early Analysis & Forecast on Extended Sino-US Trade Talks
◎ The CCP factional struggle will escalate as Xi tries to force through reforms to meet U.S. trade demands.
Geopolitics Watch: Xi Lays Groundwork for Trade Concessions in State Media
◎ The propaganda narratives in Xinhua lay the groundwork for Xi to agree to U.S. demands on sensitive issues like structural reform without losing face at home.
Geopolitics Watch: Will China and America Reach a Real Trade Deal By March 1?
◎ Xi has pressing need to compromise, and Trump will not accept a “superficial” trade deal.
Geopolitics Watch: US Strategic Advantages of Holding the Second Trump-Kim Meeting in Vietnam
◎ Manufacturers may eventually shift out of China to Vietnam and an economically liberalized North Korea.
Geopolitics Watch: Sino-US Trade Enforcement and the ZTE ‘Probation’ Model
◎ America could have the ZTE model in mind in enforcing the trade deal.
Geopolitics Watch: Xi Summoning Kim to Beijing a Goodwill Gesture to America
◎ Xi could have summoned Kim to Beijing to signal cooperation with America on North Korean denuclearization and improve the odds of successful trade talks.
No ‘Middle Way’ in US-China Struggle — China Must Change
◎ From its establishment, Communist China has been committed to the destruction or the drastic reconstruction of the global order
Geopolitics Watch: Why Trump Cited National Security as a Reason to Intervene in the Huawei Case
◎ The 90-day trade talks, if successful, will tackle U.S. national security concerns at its root.
Politics Watch: Xi’s Delivery of Trade Commitments Hinges on the CCP Factional Struggle
◎ Xi faces very high levels of political risk in the next 90 days.