◎ We have reservations about Beijing’s description of China’s economy.
◎ External and internal problems are pushing the CCP to open up China.
◎ Xi consolidating power is a vital prerequisite for the economic liberalization to happen.
◎ The CCP wouldn’t risk a “rare earth war.”
◎ The CCP faces seven pressing problems that render it unable to withstand a trade war with America.
◎ Xi could fulfill his Boao promise to open up China.
◎ China, and not the U.S., would be more severely affected by China’s soybean tariffs.
◎ Beijing is likely very clear that a trade war is unavoidable, and it can only seek to delay its start and find ways to lessen the blow.
◎ The focus on deleveraging to defuse risks suggests that Beijing expects the trade war with the U.S. to have a massive impact on China’s economy.