Behind China’s 2020 Economic Numbers
◎ A closer look at official data reveals a wobbly economy on the verge of crisis, and not solid “recovery” or healthy “growth.”
Risk Watch: Rising Property Prices in Chinese Cities Expose Central-Local Policy Contradictions
◎ Chinese markets may expect Beijing to drive property sales to boost the economy as a way to cope with a Sino-US trade war.
Risk Watch: Has China’s 2018 Bond Default Tsunami Arrived?
◎ A corporate debt crisis could be on the horizon in China.
Risk Watch: China Could Tighten Real Estate Control Policies
◎ We believe that many mainland Chinese are expecting Beijing to drive real estate sales to cope with a Sino-U.S. trade war.
Politics Watch: More Signs of Good Progress on Sino-US Trade Talks
◎ The telephone call between Mike Pompeo and Yang Jiechi corroborates our assessment of the Sino-U.S. trade talks and more.
Can China Withstand a Trade War? An Analysis of Provincial Finances
◎ An examination of the financial state of Chinese provincial in 2017 suggests that China cannot withstand a trade war.
Politics Watch: Decoding the Outcome of Sino-US Trade Talks
◎ Should Beijing live up to its promises, the U.S. could eventually realize as much as 60 to 80 percent of its trade goals with China.
Risk Watch: Property Prices Skyrocket in Chinese Border Town in Anticipation of North Korean Liberalization
◎ China would be in an advantageous position once sanctions of North Korea are lifted and the country’s economy starts to liberalize.
Risk Watch: Central Bank Official Cautions Alibaba, Tencent on Payment Industry Compliance
◎ Fan Shuangwen recently issued a warning to large Chinese payment companies.
Risk Watch: US ZTE Ban Exposes China’s Tech Industry Vulnerabilities
◎ American action against ZTE and Huawei is in line with Trump’s National Security Strategy.