Behind China’s 2020 Economic Numbers
◎ A closer look at official data reveals a wobbly economy on the verge of crisis, and not solid “recovery” or healthy “growth.”
BUSINESS

Risk Watch: Call for PBoC to Buy A-shares Comes as Confidence in Stock Markets Fall
◎ Major shareholders in China could be thinking of or taking steps to dump newly unrestricted shares in the wake of a worsening economy and slumping market confidence.

Risk Watch: Rising Business Failure and Unemployment Heighten Political Risk in China
◎ The CCP’s claim that migrants workers are returning home to partake in “entrepreneurship” is likely an attempt to put a positive spin on rising unemployment.

Risk Watch: Declining Export Surplus Will Affect China’s Forex Earnings
◎ China’s declining export surplus has affected the country’s foreign exchange earnings.

Risk Watch: The CCP’s ‘Controlled Blow Up’ of Local Debt Could Trigger a Black Swan
◎ The CCP is carrying out a controlled “blow up” of local government debts and transferring the risks to the private sector.

Risk Watch: China’s Social Security and Taxation Changes Could Spark Wave of Business Failure and Unemployment
◎ The tax and social security reform will sharply increase the financial burden of Chinese firms.

Risk Watch: China’s State-owned Enterprise Debt Financing ‘Ponzi Scheme’
◎ SOEs cannot pay interest on their financing liabilities even if they are granted very favorable interest rates, let alone pay principle.

Risk Watch: China’s Industrial Firms’ Profits Fell, Not Grew, in H1 2018
◎ China’s industrial firms’ profits actually fell 6.8 percent in the first quarter of the year.

Risk Watch: PBoC 502 Bln Yuan Injection Cannot Band-Aid China’s Economic Woes
◎ The central bank’s injections suggest that it does not have enough collateral to print money.

Risk Watch: China’s Local Debt ‘Iceberg’ Emits ‘Cracking Sounds’
◎ Based on our estimate, implicit debt in some cities and counties was three to four times higher that of their public debt.