China Outlook 2025: Crises Set to Worsen for Xi and the CCP
Our China 2025 outlook contains 32 predictions covering eight categories.
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What Trump’s Second Term Means for China
Xi and the CCP will almost certainly find their troubles compounded should Trump press ahead with his China agenda over the next four years.
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At Third Plenum, CCP Opts for Political Control Over Economic Liberalization
Beijing opted for greater control over economic liberalization at the Third Plenum of the 20th Central Committee.
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What Xi’s Europe Tour Says About the CCP’s Goals and Woes
Xi Jinping cannot be said to have returned a “winner” from his trip to Europe given the lack of substantive diplomatic agreements and the continued impasse over the West’s concerns with the PRC’s export of excess capacity and support of Russia.
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Xi Enters 2024 Facing ‘Severe and Complex’ Political Troubles
Xi Jinping appears to be addressing his political problems by doubling down on the anti-corruption campaign.
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China Outlook 2024: Political Black Swans Loom Large for Xi and the CCP
We expect many of the internal and external crises plaguing the PRC to continue and worsen for Xi and the CCP in 2024.
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Analyzing the Political Ramifications of Li Keqiang’s Sudden Death
We believe that there is a very low probability of Xi Jinping having attempted to assassinate Li Keqiang, given their long-standing political alliance and the fact that as a political force, Li posed no threat to Xi.
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Official Data Deepens Pessimism Over the Chinese Economy
Several metrics suggest that China is in a recession and experiencing deflation.
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China Outlook 2023: China at Historical Crossroads as Crises Surge
As crises come to a head, political risk levels for Xi and the CCP will rise exponentially in 2023.
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Early Analysis of Jiang Zemin’s Death and Implications for CCP Factional Struggle
The Jiang faction could exploit Jiang Zemin’s death to undermine the Xi leadership by stirring up strong “anti-Xi, not anti-CCP” sentiments in China and overseas.
Deputy Director of the Centre for Geopolitics, Cambridge University
Deputy Director of the Centre for Geopolitics, Cambridge University
Deputy Director of the Centre for Geopolitics, Cambridge University