◎ Mike Pence generally adopted a more conciliatory tone towards China in his Wilson Center speech as compared with his fiery, hard-hitting Hudson Institute speech in October 2018.
Sino-US trade war
Geopolitics Watch: Why a Trade ‘Mini-deal’ Won’t Change China-US Collision Course
◎ We look at some key factors that would make or break trade negotiations between America and China.
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Risk Watch: The NBA, South Park, and the Ideological Turn in Sino-US Relations
◎ Within the span of a week, art imitated life and life imitated art regarding CCP censorship.
Read moreRisk Watch: The NBA, South Park, and the Ideological Turn in Sino-US Relations
Geopolitics Watch: In Chasing a ‘Monumental Deal,’ Trump Walks into the CCP’s Trap
◎ The CCP does not want a trade deal on Trump’s terms to begin with because such a deal would cause existential problems for the communist regime.
Read moreGeopolitics Watch: In Chasing a ‘Monumental Deal,’ Trump Walks into the CCP’s Trap
Politics Watch: Fourth Plenum Timing and Agenda Confirm Political Crisis in China
◎ It is becoming increasingly clear that the Sino-U.S. trade agreement has placed the Xi leadership in a Catch-22 situation.
Read morePolitics Watch: Fourth Plenum Timing and Agenda Confirm Political Crisis in China
Geopolitics Watch: The Sino-US ‘Battle of Waterloo’ Has Begun
◎ The PRC and the U.S. have unwittingly stumbled into battle with the CCP devaluing the RMB and the U.S. declaring China a currency manipulator.
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Risk Watch: The CCP’s Trade War and Economic Growth Rhetoric Betray Hidden Risks
◎ Whenever the CCP admits to something, the reality is usually much worse than what is admitted.
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Politics Watch: G20 ‘Loser’ Xi Faces Increased Political Risks at Home
◎ Unless Xi resolves factional politics at home, China and the U.S. will find it very hard to get a trade deal.
Read morePolitics Watch: G20 ‘Loser’ Xi Faces Increased Political Risks at Home
Politics Watch: CCP ‘Self-reform,’ Global Times on CCTV, and the Factional Struggle
◎ Xi is reasserting his paramount authority in the face of political pushback.
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Geopolitics Watch: How the Trump-Xi G20 Meeting Could Affect Sino-US Relations in the Second Half of 2019
◎ Both President Trump and Xi Jinping have signaled strongly that they want to meet each other at the G20 in Osaka.