CCP elite politics is a black box.

SinoInsider is able to decode the black box using publicly available information because we have a deep understanding of the CCP and its operations. Our clients receive timely political risk warnings and are able to better interpret China’s political and economic trends.

19th Party Congress

OVER

80%

Accuracy

TWO SESSIONS

OVER

70%

Accuracy

FOILED COUP

Predicted Attempted Coup

19th Party Congress

Standing Committee

Politburo

Central committee

Xi Successor?

Vice President

Vice Premier

Two Sessions

Foiled Coups

Politburo Standing Committee - 100% Accurate

Our analysis was based on two guidelines

  • Xi Jinping needs to fully consolidate power while resisting interference by Party elders and the collective leadership system
  • Xi needs to keep Wang Qishan in office to maintain power.

   OUR ANALYSIS   

2017-10-10

Xi’s Two Key Actions and Five Standing Committee Scenarios

2017-10-18

An Updated Standing Committee Scenario

   Verification    

2017-10-25

China Focus: New CPC leadership for new era

Politburo - 80% Accurate

   OUR ANALYSIS   

2017-10-20

Politburo and Expanded Politburo Scenario

   Verification    

2017-10-25

China Focus: New CPC leadership for new era

Central Committee prediction - 81% Accurate

   OUR ANALYSIS   

2017-10-22

CCP Central Committee Scenario

   Verification    

2017-10-25

China Focus: New CPC leadership for new era

Xi Jinping won’t pick a successor

  WHAT HAPPENED  

  • Before the 19th Congress, many observers predicted that Xi Jinping would designate a successor per recent Party norms. Chongqing chief Chen Min’er was widely tipped to succeed Xi.
  WHAT WE SAID  
  • Xi Jinping won’t pick a successor because he is consolidating power and does not need to groom future challengers to his authority.

   When we said it   

2017-09-16

Potential Xi Successor? Analyzing NYT’s profile of Chen Min’er

2017-10-25

Why Chen Min’er Didn’t Make the Politburo Standing Committee

2017-10-26

Ford’s Political Bet on Chongqing’s Chen Min’er

   Verification    

2017-10-25

The communique of the First Plenum of the19th Central Committee lists Chen Min'er as a Politburo member. By CCP norms, successors to Party leader are typically nominated to the Politburo Standing Committee and appointed Chinese vice president.

Wang Qishan is named Chinese vice president

  WHAT WE SAID  

  • We analyzed in October 2017 that Wang would become vice president, and were the first to do so. Speculations of Wang’s appointment only surfaced after our analysis was published.
  WHAT HAPPENED  
  • On March 17, 2018 Wang Qishan is officially elected as vice president at the Two Sessions. Few observers anticipated the move."

   When we said it   

2017-10-18

An Updated Standing Committee Scenario

2017-10-24

What’s Next for Wang Qishan After Leaving the CCP Central Committee

2018-02-16

Xi Jinping May Turn to Top Ally to Handle US Pressure

2018-03-17

How We Correctly Predicted Wang Qishan as China’s Vice President

   Verification    

2018-03-17

Wang Qishan is elected Chinese vice president at the first session of the 13th National People's Congress.

State Council vice premier appointments - 100% Accurate

   When we said it   

2018-01-19

An Updated Vice Premier Candidate Forecast

   Verification    

2018-03-18

The four vice premiers are elected at the first session of the 13th National People's Congress.

We correctly predicted over two-thirds of the 110-plus senior appointments for key Party and state institutions at the 2018 Two Sessions.

   When we said it   

2018-02-18

Two Sessions: Forecasting State Council, NPC, CPPCC, National Supervision Commission Personnel Reshuffle

2018-02-18

An Updated Two Sessions Forecast

2018-03-19

2018 Two Sessions Key State Personnel Forecast and Results

   Verification    

2018-03-19

Xinhua's report on the 2018 Two Sessions has the full list of political appointees.

Failed coup before the 19th Party Congress

  WHAT HAPPENED  

  • In July 2017, Chongqing chief Sun Zhengcai was removed from his post and investigated by the anti-corruption agency. Meanwhile, PLA chief of the joint staff Fang Fenghui and Central Military Commission Political Work Department head Zhang Yang were removed from their posts in late August 2017.
  WHAT WE SAID  
  • Sun Zhengcai, Fang Fenghui, and Zhang Yang were purged because Xi was “stopping a coup attempt by the Jiang Zemin political faction.”

   When we said it   

2017-09-17

Major Political and Military Shakeup Hints at Failed Coup Attempt Against Xi Jinping

   Verification    

2017-10-19

Top securities regulator Liu Shiyu criticizes Sun Zhengcai and a handful of purged Jiang faction members of having “plotted to usurp the Party leadership.”

2017-11-03

Zhang Yang committed suicide while under house arrest, according to state media. He was being investigated over his links with purged military vice chairs Guo Boxiong and Xu Caihou, who were accused of seeking to “wreck and split the Party.”

   When we said it   

2017-12-28

The Mysterious Death of a Chinese General

2018-01-09

Prosecution of Fang Fenghui Confirms Our Coup Analysis

   Verification    

2018-01-09

Fang Fenghui is officially investigated. The South China Morning Post reports that Fang is closely associated with Guo Boxiong and Xu Caihou.

   When we said it   

2018-01-14

Why General Fang Fenghui Was Purged

   Verification    

2018-01-26

CCP General Office director Ding Xuexiang said at a meeting that "virtually all high-level officials who were probed for corruption were guilty of political misconduct. These officials partook in vote buying, formed cliques and factions, and some even sought to usurp the Party leadership.”

2018-10-16

State media announce the expulsion of Fang Fenghui and Zhang Yang from the Communist Party.