◎ The CCP will likely try to drag out the trade negotiations, the implementation of the trade deal, and the enforcement mediation process to gain an advantage in the “new cold war.”
◎ The stalemate in Sino-U.S. trade negotiations has led to a stalemate in global geopolitics.
◎ We believe that Xi Jinping presently faces critical levels of political risk given the political and economic problems in the regime.
◎ Xi faces very high levels of political risk in the next 90 days.
◎ The CCP’s claim that migrants workers are returning home to partake in “entrepreneurship” is likely an attempt to put a positive spin on rising unemployment.
◎ Xi Jinping and Donald Trump likely find it to be in their interest to hold a summit at the G20 meeting in Buenos Aires.
◎ The midterm results should have little effect on influencing the Sino-U.S. trade war.
◎ Xi may be planning to make concessions on trade, but the CCP system may not let him give up too much.