China Outlook 2025: Crises Set to Worsen for Xi and the CCP
Our China 2025 outlook contains 32 predictions covering eight categories.
POLITICS
Reports of Suicides by Chinese Security Official Surface After 19th Congress
◎ The Jiang Zemin faction has long controlled the PLAC and the Chinese Communist Party’s domestic security apparatus.
China’s Anti-corruption Agency Takes Aim at Collective Leadership Model of Xi’s Rival
◎ The CCDI choice of the phrase “nine dragons ruling the waters” appears to be an oblique reference to the changes Jiang Zemin made to the Politburo Standing Committee to control Hu Jintao after he took office in 2002.
Three Key Takeaways from Trump’s China Trip
◎ Here are three key takeaways from Trump’s trip to China.
United Front Work Department Comes Under Xi’s Direction
◎ You Quan and Li Keqiang had a close working relationship.
Appointment of New Central Party School Head Diminishes its Status
◎ We believe that Xi is in fact gradually shifting the Party’s power to the state.
China’s Powerful Domestic Security Apparatus Set to be Further Weakened
◎ The new leading group for advancing law-based governance will eventually render the PLAC redundant as the rule of law and constitutionalism starts taking priority over Party rule.
Risk vs. Opportunity: Xi’s New Shanghai Chief to Target Entrenched Corruption Networks
◎ Li Qiang will escalate Xi’s anti-corruption drive in Shanghai.
China Could Get a Fifth Vice Premier
◎ New Politburo member Yang Jiechi may become a State Council vice premier with a foreign affairs portfolio.
China’s Paramilitary, a ‘Coup Tool,’ to be Drastically Downsized
◎ The PAP reforms are helpful to Xi in two ways.