China Outlook 2025: Crises Set to Worsen for Xi and the CCP
Our China 2025 outlook contains 32 predictions covering eight categories.
POLITICS
Politics Watch: Decoding Liu He’s U.S. Trip
◎ Liu visiting America during the Third Plenum period without a formal state post suggests that the CCP considers his trip to be of utmost importance.
Politics Watch: Decoding China’s Presidential Term Limits Change, Other Constitutional Amendments
◎ The announcement of the Second Plenum deliberations more than a month after the meeting suggests that Xi’s rivals may have voiced strong objections to the amendments.
Politics Watch: Decoding the Third Plenum Announcement
◎ We believe that Xi held two separate plenums to discuss the adding of his “Xi Jinping Thought” to the constitution and the appointing of key state personnel because he met with stiff resistance from inside the Party.
Risk Watch: Chinese Regulators Take Over Anbang, Prosecute Chairman Wu Xiaohui
◎ The prosecution of Wu Xiaohui is a classic “kill chickens to scare monkeys” move by the Xi administration.
Decoding the Political and Economic Issues Behind Foxconn’s Shanghai IPO
◎ We received reliable information that Foxconn decided to build its new LCD factory in the U.S. last year after receiving an invitation from the American authorities.
Two Sessions: Forecasting State Council, NPC, CPPCC, National Supervision Commission Personnel Reshuffle
◎ We present our Two Sessions personnel predictions.
Personnel Watch: Decoding the Censuring of China’s Purged ‘Internet Czar’ Lu Wei
◎ The arrest of Lu Wei puts Liu Yunshan and Liu Qibao at risk.
Politics Watch: China’s Anti-corruption Agency Specifies Anti-Mafia Campaign Targets
◎ The CCDI’s latest opinion document further verifies our earlier analysis that Xi’s “sweeping black” campaign aims at solving multiple problems in one swoop.
Politics Watch: Wang Qishan Not on Party’s ‘Old Comrades’ List
◎ We noted in our 19th Congress forecast that Wang may be appointed as vice president and handed a diplomatic portfolio in March 2018.