China Outlook 2025: Crises Set to Worsen for Xi and the CCP
Our China 2025 outlook contains 32 predictions covering eight categories.
POLITICS
Politics Watch: After Sino-US Trade Talks, China Announces Plans to Open Up Telecom, Financial, Legal Services
◎ Beijing would find that it cannot cut the trade deficit only through importing U.S. goods.
Geopolitics Watch: Why is North Korea Canceling South Korean Talks, Threatening Trump-Kim Summit?
◎ North Korea’s “shock” move is hardly surprising.
Politics Watch: Wang Qishan Gets New Foreign Affairs Role Amid Sino-US Trade Tensions
◎ Wang Qishan is the third-ranking member of the CCP Foreign Affairs Commission.
Geopolitics Watch: Reading Trump’s ZTE Tweet, Sino-US Trade, and North Korea
◎ Trump’s ZTE tweet suggests that our read of America and China making good progress in trade talks is correct.
Geopolitics Watch: On Xi, Kim, Dalai Lama, North Korea, and the Sino-US Trade Talks
◎ The Trump administration still has cards to play to keep pressuring the CCP.
Politics Watch: Subtle Signals of Sino-US Trade Progress Surface
◎ Beijing has the incentive to make trade concessions to prevent a deterioration of relations with America.
Politics Watch: More Signs of Good Progress on Sino-US Trade Talks
◎ The telephone call between Mike Pompeo and Yang Jiechi corroborates our assessment of the Sino-U.S. trade talks and more.
Geopolitics Watch: Behind Wang Yi’s Trip to North Korea
◎ Whether the coming peace talks would be trilateral or quadrilateral talks would hinge on the outcome of Sino-U.S. trade negotiations and the Trump-Kim summit.
Geopolitics Watch: Forecasting the Korean Peninsula Peace and Denuclearization Process
◎ Kim’s willingness to make the closure of the Punggyeri test site public and the scrapping of “Pyongyang time” are signs that he is sincere about denuclearization.