China Outlook 2025: Crises Set to Worsen for Xi and the CCP
Our China 2025 outlook contains 32 predictions covering eight categories.
POLITICS
Politics Watch: Decoding Wang Qishan’s Seating at the National People’s Congress Session
◎ Wang Qishan’s political standing is akin to that of an “eighth” Politburo Standing Committee member.
Personnel Watch: We Correctly Predicted the National People’s Congress Leadership
◎ Nine of the 13 NPC leaders we forecasted on Feb. 18 were confirmed on March 4.
Politics Watch: Why the 2018 National People’s Congress First Session is 3 Days Longer than the 2013 Edition
◎ On March 4, state media announced that the first session of the 13th National People’s Congress would be held from March 5 to March 20, or a period of 15 and a half days.
Politics Watch: Decoding Insider Intel on Changes to the National People’s Congress Meeting at the Two Sessions
◎ We believe that the NPC meeting this year is extended by three days for its members to deliberate the draft resolution proposed at the Third Plenum.
Personnel Watch: How We Scored on Forecasting the Top CPPCC Leadership
◎ The 11 recently confirmed CPPCC vice chairs and the CPPCC chairman are in our Feb. 18 forecast of key personnel reshuffles at the Two Sessions.
Is Liu He the Next China Central Bank Chief?
◎ Liu as PBoC president is a little off in considering the norms of official ranking.
Politics Watch: Decoding the Third Plenum Communique
◎ Going by the content of the Third Plenum communique, Xi is planning to introduce sweeping reforms to the Party and state apparatuses, as well as the military.
Politics Watch: Xi’s Former Top Aide Obliquely Confirms Coup by Rivals
◎ Ding Xuexiang recently made statements that confirm the intensity of the ongoing CCP factional struggle.
Why Xi Jinping Removed China’s Presidential Term Limit
◎ We believe that the answer to why Xi removed term limits for the Chinese presidency can be found in an analysis of CCP factional struggle.