China Outlook 2025: Crises Set to Worsen for Xi and the CCP
Our China 2025 outlook contains 32 predictions covering eight categories.
POLITICS
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China’s Stock Market Volatility Heightens Xi’s Political Risks
Xi Jinping and the CCP face a dilemma on how to handle the stock market situation.
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As China’s Woes Mount, CCP Focuses on Propaganda and Discipline
Xi will likely rely even more on propaganda and discipline as China’s problems worsen
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At Third Plenum, CCP Opts for Political Control Over Economic Liberalization
Beijing opted for greater control over economic liberalization at the Third Plenum of the 20th Central Committee.
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Xi Focuses on Financial Risks Amid Rumors That His Factional Foes are in the Crosshairs
Beijing’s inability to turn around the economy and address the property sector crisis has left it increasingly anxious about financial risks and their potential transformation into social and political risks.
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Xi Solidifies Party Dominance Over State Apparatus at Two Sessions
The first two days of the Two Sessions saw three developments that more firmly entrenched the Party’s domination over the state government.
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Xi Enters 2024 Facing ‘Severe and Complex’ Political Troubles
Xi Jinping appears to be addressing his political problems by doubling down on the anti-corruption campaign.
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Risks Increase for Xi and the CCP as Foreign Investors Sour on China
Foreigners turning cold on China and the resulting capital flight appears to be having an impact on CCP factional politics.
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Analyzing the Political Ramifications of Li Keqiang’s Sudden Death
We believe that there is a very low probability of Xi Jinping having attempted to assassinate Li Keqiang, given their long-standing political alliance and the fact that as a political force, Li posed no threat to Xi.
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Why Beijing Went After Evergrande’s Hui Ka Yan
We believe that politics and economics are two driving factors behind the Xi Jinping leadership’s decision to subject Hui Ka Yan to “mandatory measures” at this time.
Deputy Director of the Centre for Geopolitics, Cambridge University
Deputy Director of the Centre for Geopolitics, Cambridge University
Deputy Director of the Centre for Geopolitics, Cambridge University