China Outlook 2026: Xi to Focus on Domestic Stability Amid External Volatility
Our China 2026 outlook contains 28 predictions covering eight categories.
Geopolitics

Geopolitics Watch: The ‘People’s Leader’ and the ‘Phase One’ Deal Signing
◎ Xi’s “people’s leader” tag is a sign of weakness, not strength.

China 2020 Outlook: Escalating Sino-US Rivalry Reshapes Global Geopolitics
◎ Presenting our China 2020 outlook.

Geopolitics Watch: US Trade Deal Pressure Could Trigger Black Swans in China
◎ Messaging from China and the U.S. suggest that both sides want to make the deal happen.

Geopolitics Watch: Early Analysis of the Sino-US ‘Phase One’ Trade Deal
◎ The “phase one” trade deal is a political “Catch-22” for Xi Jinping, whose “quan wei” and grip on power is far less secure than popularly believed.

Geopolitics Watch: Passing of Hong Kong Act Sinks the CCP Deeper into the Hong Kong Quagmire
◎ While the CCP has sought to extricate itself from the Hong Kong quagmire, its measures have thus far only caused it to sink in deeper.

Geopolitics Watch: What a ‘Rollback’ of Tariffs Means for the Sino-US Trade Deal
◎ A closer examination of recent developments suggests dim prospects for the “phase one” trade deal and future Sino-U.S. trade agreements.

Geopolitics Watch: Pompeo’s ‘China Challenge’ Speech Hints at the Future of Sino-US Relations
◎ Secretary Pompeo’s speech affirms several trends in U.S. policy toward the PRC which we have identified since July 2018.

Geopolitics Watch: Early Analysis of Pence’s Second China Speech, the Trade War, and Hong Kong
◎ Mike Pence generally adopted a more conciliatory tone towards China in his Wilson Center speech as compared with his fiery, hard-hitting Hudson Institute speech in October 2018.

Geopolitics Watch: Why a Trade ‘Mini-deal’ Won’t Change China-US Collision Course
◎ We look at some key factors that would make or break trade negotiations between America and China.
