◎China will find it hard to sustain the economic “recovery” in April. ◎Risks of a stock market crash are greater than before.
◎ The CCP is putting its political credit on the line by making local bonds available over the counter.
◎ The timing of the plunge and other odd developments suggest that CCP factional politics could be a factor influencing the recent sell-offs.
◎ The collapse of Aiwujiwu and pinganfang.com suggests that the business model of “property + financing + internet services” is failing in China.
Read moreRisk Watch: Chinese Online Property ‘Unicorn’ Aiwujiwu Shuts Down
◎ The CCP’s P2P campaign will increase risks for China’s financial system.
Read moreRisk Watch: Campaign to Curb P2Ps Heightens Political Risk for the CCP
◎ Mainland property developers will likely face severe financing problems in 2019.
Read moreRisk Watch: Crashing China Property Stocks in Hong Kong Forebode Bubble Crisis
◎ Major shareholders in China could be thinking of or taking steps to dump newly unrestricted shares in the wake of a worsening economy and slumping market confidence.
Read moreRisk Watch: Call for PBoC to Buy A-shares Comes as Confidence in Stock Markets Fall
◎ The CCP’s claim that migrants workers are returning home to partake in “entrepreneurship” is likely an attempt to put a positive spin on rising unemployment.
Read moreRisk Watch: Rising Business Failure and Unemployment Heighten Political Risk in China
◎ China’s declining export surplus has affected the country’s foreign exchange earnings.
Read moreRisk Watch: Declining Export Surplus Will Affect China’s Forex Earnings
◎ The CCP is carrying out a controlled “blow up” of local government debts and transferring the risks to the private sector.
Read moreRisk Watch: The CCP’s ‘Controlled Blow Up’ of Local Debt Could Trigger a Black Swan