China Outlook 2025: Crises Set to Worsen for Xi and the CCP
Our China 2025 outlook contains 32 predictions covering eight categories.
POLITICS
Personnel Watch: Decoding the Promotion of 102 Vice Governors in January
◎ The January reshuffle reveals Xi Jinping’s efforts to clean up the officialdom and consolidate power.
Political Risk Watch: China Target 30 Provinces, Gov’t Depts. in Post-19th Congress Sweep
◎ Xi appears to have adopted two measures to prevent internal Party opposition from forming a coalition against his administration.
Political Risk Watch: State Media Commentary Reveals Real Target of China’s Anti-Mafia Campaign
◎ Officials in the domestic security and legal apparatus are the “protective umbrellas” that Xi is aiming at with his anti-organized crime campaign.
Personnel Watch: What’s Next for Hunan Legislature Delegate Wang Qishan?
◎ Wang’s appointment to the Chinese legislature greatly raises the chances of his taking on a state job.
Politics Watch: Decoding China’s Political Advisory Body Personnel Changes
◎ While CPPCC members have no actual power, the political advisory body is still one of the four leading governing branches in the Chinese regime.
Why China’s Vice Presidency is an Office to Watch
◎ The vice presidency has emerged as a focal point in an intense factional struggle (neidou) in the upper echelons of the Chinese Communist Party.
Wang Qishan’s Second Act: US-China Relations
◎ Xi Jinping could bring back trusted ally and seasoned troubleshooter Wang Qishan ahead of schedule to help even the odds.
Political Risk Watch: Decoding China’s Latest Anti-Organized Crime Campaign
◎ The new anti-organized crime campaign is likely aimed at sending a strong political signal and not merely addressing a common societal problem as in the earlier campaign.
Personnel Watch: Financial Officials Become Vice Mayors in Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai
◎ The Xi leadership may want financial officials in local administrations who can better deal with economic problems and financial risks.