Three Takeaways From China’s 2025 Two Sessions
Li’s work report indicates that Beijing will rely heavily on issuing debt to meet its 2025 growth target.
POLITICS

Why Beijing Went After Evergrande’s Hui Ka Yan
We believe that politics and economics are two driving factors behind the Xi Jinping leadership’s decision to subject Hui Ka Yan to “mandatory measures” at this time.

Xi’s Diplomatic No-shows Hint at Domestic Political Woes
Xi Jinping’s political problems will likely compound as more signs of the Chinese economy tanking emerge later this year and social instability rises.

Blinken’s China Trip Yields Little Improvement in Sino-US Relations
Despite appearances, Secretary Blinken’s visit to China has not done much to thaw Sino-U.S. relations or change its current dynamics.

Xi Tackles Regime Crises With Propaganda, Purges, and ‘Multilateralism’
Xi Jinping has turned to propaganda, purges, and a softened diplomatic approach to tackle the “various risks, challenges, and difficult problems” facing the regime.

Early Analysis of Jiang Zemin’s Death and Implications for CCP Factional Struggle
The Jiang faction could exploit Jiang Zemin’s death to undermine the Xi leadership by stirring up strong “anti-Xi, not anti-CCP” sentiments in China and overseas.

Analyzing Hu Jintao’s Early Exit From the 20th Party Congress Closing Ceremony
Hu almost certainly knew the result of the personnel reshuffle beforehand, and is unlikely to have suddenly found reason to be upset with Xi over the reshuffle.

How We Fared: Reviewing Our 20th Party Congress Forecast
We were able to forecast the 20th Party Congress leadership reshuffle with good accuracy without relying on insider sources using our unique political risk assessment model.

20th Party Congress Forecast: Five Scenarios for the Politburo and its Standing Committee
The report presents several possible personnel arrangements for the Politburo and its Standing Committee, as well as list personnel who could serve on the 20th Central Committee and Central Military Commission.

China’s Banking Trouble Points to Financial Contagion, Declining Economy
Bank trouble in China could in turn worsen social and economic instability in China to the detriment of Xi Jinping and the CCP.
Deputy Director of the Centre for Geopolitics, Cambridge University
Deputy Director of the Centre for Geopolitics, Cambridge University
Deputy Director of the Centre for Geopolitics, Cambridge University