China Outlook 2025: Crises Set to Worsen for Xi and the CCP
Our China 2025 outlook contains 32 predictions covering eight categories.
POLITICS
Full Marks: Our Predictions for China President, Vice President, NPC Chairman
◎ We correctly picked 12 of the 15 officials who were newly elected to the NPC leadership.
How We Correctly Predicted Wang Qishan as China’s Vice President
◎ To rookie and veteran observers, the fate of Wang Qishan is perhaps one of the more perplexing developments in recent CCP politics.
Politics Watch: We Predicted the CPPCC Leadership with Over 70% Accuracy
◎ We scored 18 out of 25 for our CPPCC Two Sessions personnel forecast.
Politics Watch: Decoding the State Council Institutional Reforms
◎ The 13th NPC deliberated a plan to reform State Council institutions on March 13.
Personnel Watch: An Updated Two Sessions Forecast
◎ We present an updated personnel list based on analysis using our unique research methodology and risk assessment model.
Politics Watch: The Factional Struggle Behind China’s Constitutional Amendments
◎ We believe that Xi’s motivation for driving reform measures is his life-and-death struggle with the Jiang faction.
Politics Watch: What 19 Provincial Procuratorates Implementing ‘Unified Management’ of Lower Procuratorates Might Mean
◎ Xi’s various judicial reforms and his strengthening the Party’s leadership are aimed at weakening the power of local governments and strengthening the central government’s control over the provinces.
Politics Watch: Chongqing Chief Talks ‘Political Pollution’ in the City
◎ Chen Min’er’s remarks at the Two Sessions shows that the factional struggle inside the CCP is still very intense.
Questioning the Discourse on Xi Jinping’s ‘Power Grab’
◎ A CCP Central Committee decision to remove term limits for the president and vice president sparked a huge outcry in the media and the China-watching community.