What Trump’s Second Term Means for China
Xi and the CCP will almost certainly find their troubles compounded should Trump press ahead with his China agenda over the next four years.
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Geopolitics Watch: With EU Deal, Trump Advances Another Step in Reshaping CCP-Hijacked World Order
◎ The new U.S.-EU trade agreement, while still being finalized, would likely come to be seen as a watershed in Trump’s effort to rebuild the global order.
Politics Watch: US-China Trade War a ‘Deathtrap’ for CCP Politics
◎ The trade war forces Xi and the CCP to face an intractable political contradiction.
Risk Watch: China’s Local Debt ‘Iceberg’ Emits ‘Cracking Sounds’
◎ Based on our estimate, implicit debt in some cities and counties was three to four times higher that of their public debt.
Social Watch: In China, the CCP is Losing Control Over the Trade War Narrative
◎ The Sino-U.S. trade war is proving to be a quagmire for the CCP propaganda apparatus.
Risk Watch: Does China Have Ammo for a Trade War?
◎ The Sino-U.S. trade war is underway. And China lacks “ammunition.”
Geopolitics Watch: Korean Peninsula Denuke and Peace Could Hinge on US-North Korea Trust
◎ The timing and tempo of the U.S. strategies is vital to ensure mission success.
The Rise and Fall of China’s Domestic Security and Legal Affairs Apparatus
◎ Xi’s policies and personnel changes have combined to curb the PLAC’s authority and weaken its influence.
Geopolitics Watch: The Potentially Dire Implications of US Tariffs on China
◎ We examine the “worst-case scenario” of what the implementation of U.S. tariffs might mean for America, China, and North Korea.
Geopolitics Watch: Trump-Kim Summit Affirms Our Peace and Denuclearization Prediction
◎ We predicted in March after Kim met Xi in Beijing that North Korea would denuclearize and a peace treaty to end the Korean war would be signed.