China Outlook 2025: Crises Set to Worsen for Xi and the CCP
Our China 2025 outlook contains 32 predictions covering eight categories.
POLITICS
The Geopolitical Contest Behind Kim Jong Un’s Visit to China
◎ Kim could have to broker a deal with Xi where he exchanges his nuclear weapons for a lifting of sanctions and keeping his rule over North Korea.
Personnel Watch: Decoding Guo Shuqing as People’s Bank of China Party Secretary
◎ Guo Shuqing’s new assignment affirms the logic behind our analysis of China’s financial sector reform and personnel reshuffle.
On the Timing of Trump’s $60 Billion Opening Salvo in ‘Trade War’ with China
◎ We believe that Trump’s $60 billion tariffs are just the opening salvo. Expect harsher penalties to come.
Politics Watch: Yang Jiechi’s South Africa Trip is a Diplomatic Puzzle
◎ Yang Jiechi would visit South Africa from March 23 to March 24.
Fu Zhenghua, Factional Struggle, and Scrubbing the Security and Law Apparatus
◎ We believe that Fu Zhenghua’s promotion doesn’t guarantee his safety.
Politics Watch: Decoding China’s Party and State Institutional Reforms
◎ On March 21, Chinese state media published the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) plan for reforming its Party and state institutions.
Personnel Watch: What Does the Future Hold for Yang Jiechi?
◎ Yang Jiechi, a new Politburo member and former state councilor, was not assigned any state office at the Two Sessions.
Over 71% Accurate: Our Predictions for China’s New Vice Premiers, State Councilors, Ministers
◎ On March 19, the 13th National People’s Congress elected new vice premiers, state councilors, ministers, committee heads, and key central bank appointees.
Five Key Takeaways About Yang Xiaodu as National Supervision Commission Chief
◎ The appointment of Yang Xiaodu as National Supervision Commission director shocked many observers.