China Outlook 2025: Crises Set to Worsen for Xi and the CCP
Our China 2025 outlook contains 32 predictions covering eight categories.
POLITICS
Politics Watch: Peking University’s New Party Secretary is on ‘Work Probation’
◎ Qiu Shuiping, former chief justice of the high court in Shanxi, was appointed Party secretary of Peking University.
Politics Watch: Decoding Xi’s ‘Subdued’ Southern Tour
◎ The “subdued” media coverage of Xi’s southern tour and his other gestures in Guangdong is closely connected to the CCP factional struggle.
The CCP Fourth Plenum and Geopolitics
◎ The plenary session after the Two Sessions in the year after a Party Congress typically focuses on the economy.
The World is Trapped in Red China’s Matrix
◎ The Soviet Iron Curtain served to “block out” the West. The CCP’s Red Matrix works to “plug in” the world to a view of China that it controls.
Politics Watch: Fang Fenghui’s Expulsion, Meng Hongwei’s Arrest, and the Factional ‘Soft Coup’
◎ We believe that the expulsion of Fang Fenghui and Zhang Yang from the CCP is connected with the recent purge of Interpol chief Meng Hongwei.
Politics Watch: Meng Hongwei Purge Hints at ‘Soft Coup’ Against Xi
◎ There are hints that the Meng Hongwei case is connected with a “soft coup” against the Xi leadership.
Risk Watch: China’s Social Security and Taxation Changes Could Spark Wave of Business Failure and Unemployment
◎ The tax and social security reform will sharply increase the financial burden of Chinese firms.
Politics Watch: Stricter Controls Over Society Signal Greater Crisis for the CCP
◎ Based on our research and understanding of the CCP, the more tightly it controls society, the more it feels imperiled.
Risk Watch: What China’s Fx Reserves Looks Like Without a Trade Surplus with America
◎ China’s economy would be in a precarious position if U.S. tariffs completely eliminate the trade deficit.