China Outlook 2025: Crises Set to Worsen for Xi and the CCP
Our China 2025 outlook contains 32 predictions covering eight categories.
POLITICS
Politics Watch: Politburo Meeting and Study Session Reveal Regime Crisis
◎ Xi is likely seeking to stamp his paramount authority and unify the Party as political, economic, and social crises mount in China.
Politics Watch: Xi’s Meeting with Provincial-level Officials Hints at Unprecedented Crisis in the CCP
◎ The CCP regime is facing an immense, and likely unprecedented, political crisis.
Politics Watch: Xi’s Call to Build ‘High-quality Officials’ Signals a Fresh Round of Purges
◎ A recent Qiushi article seems to be aimed at countering threats to Xi’s rule inside the Party.
Politics Watch: Decoding the Convening of Enlarged Military Meetings
◎ Xi is likely seeking to strengthen his control over the military in a crucial period.
Politics Watch: CCP Fourth Plenum Could be Held at the End of January
◎ The sudden rescheduling of important provincial “Two Sessions” meetings suggests that the provincial-level officials have an even more important meeting to attend.
Politics Watch: Xi’s Reform Anniversary Speech Signals Political Crisis in China
◎ We believe that Xi Jinping presently faces critical levels of political risk given the political and economic problems in the regime.
Politics Watch: Xi’s Delivery of Trade Commitments Hinges on the CCP Factional Struggle
◎ Xi faces very high levels of political risk in the next 90 days.
Risk Watch: Rising Business Failure and Unemployment Heighten Political Risk in China
◎ The CCP’s claim that migrants workers are returning home to partake in “entrepreneurship” is likely an attempt to put a positive spin on rising unemployment.
Politics Watch: Xi Consolidates Control Over Spy Apparatus with Local Gov’t Reforms
◎ Xi reformed the chain of command of local national security agencies to wrest control of the intelligence apparatus from political rivals and further weaken the Political and Legal Affairs Commission.