How We Correctly Predicted Wang Qishan as China’s Vice President

By Don Tse and Larry Ong Introduction To rookie and veteran observers, the fate of Wang Qishan is perhaps one of the more perplexing developments in recent Chinese Communist Party (CCP) politics. Before the 19th Party Congress, pundits wondered whether Wang would retain his spot in the seven-member Politburo Standing Committee. Both Chinese and Western …

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Decoding China’s Proposal to Merge Banking, Insurance Regulators

According to a reorganization plan deliberated by the 13th National People’s Congress (NPC) on March 13, several State Council institutions would be dissolved or merged. One such merger is that of the banking and insurance regulators into a single entity, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission (CBIRC). The CBIRC reports directly to the State …

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Personnel Watch: An Updated Two Sessions Forecast

On March 13, the 13th National People’s Congress (NPC) deliberated a plan to reform State Council institutions. According to the plan, ministerial-level government agencies under the State Council will be reduced by eight, while vice ministerial-level agencies will be reduced by seven. There are now 26 ministerial and vice ministerial-level agencies under the State Council, …

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Why Xi Jinping Removed China’s Presidential Term Limit

By Don Tse and Larry Ong Chinese state media published a list of constitutional changes deliberated by the Chinese Communist Party’s 19th Central Committee on Feb. 25. Among the amendments include the removal of term limits for China’s president and vice president.[1] News that China’s Xi Jinping could potentially be president for life sparked an …

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Leaner and Meaner: Why China’s Financial Oversight Agencies May be Merging

Introduction Resolving risks in China’s financial sector is the Xi Jinping administration’s most urgent and important task of 2018. The tone has already been set by top banking regulator Guo Shuqing and former finance minister Lou Jiwei publicly expressing their concerns about financial risks in January. How the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) will tackle risks …

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China’s Five Strategies for Economic Expansion in the Digital Age

After months of anticipation, the China Securities Regulatory Commission announced on Feb. 9 that China would be launching its yuan-denominated crude oil futures contract on March 26. China is also pushing its 5G networks for commercialization in 2018. Meanwhile, the Trump administration released national security and defense strategies that label China as a “revisionist power” …

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Why China’s Vice Presidency is an Office to Watch

By Don Tse China will unveil a new crop of national-level leaders at the Two Sessions meeting in March. Typically, observers give the most attention to the vice premiers who oversee the Chinese economy and financial sector. This year, the vice presidency is arguably the most crucial position to watch for those seeking to better …

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Wang Qishan’s Second Act: US-China Relations

By Don Tse In December 2017, President Donald Trump identified China as a “revisionist power” and strategic “competitor” in his National Security Strategy (NSS). The new U.S. National Defense Strategy (NDS) unveiled the following month echoes the NSS’s theme of long-term “great power competition” with China and Russia. And on several occasions in January, Trump …

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Prosecution of Fang Fenghui Confirms Our Coup Analysis

On Sept. 17, 2017, we analyzed that Fang Fenghui and Zhang Yang may be involved in a failed coup against the Xi Jinping leadership. In light of Fang’s investigation being made official on Jan. 9, we have made our full report available below. Major Political and Military Shakeup Hints at Failed Coup Attempt Against Xi …

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Trump’s National Security Strategy a Timely Counter to China’s Expansionism

By Don Tse and Larry Ong China is a “rival power” that seeks “to challenge American influence, values, and wealth,” said United States President Donald Trump in a speech introducing his national security strategy (NSS) on Dec. 18. The NSS document notes China’s efforts to build “the most capable and well-funded military in the world” after the …

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