Risk Watch: Can China Withstand a Trade War?

The United States and China spent the first week of April ratcheting up trade tensions. But the Chinese Communist Party’s bark is louder than its bite, and the U.S. is just the opposite. The backdrop: On April 5, President Donald Trump directed U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer to identify an additional $100 billion of tariffs …

Read moreRisk Watch: Can China Withstand a Trade War?

Fu Zhenghua, Factional Struggle, and Scrubbing the Security and Law Apparatus

The Two Sessions personnel reshuffle saw some shock moves, including the appointment of Yang Xiaodu as National Supervision Commission director, Yi Gang as central bank chief, and Yang Jiechi not being named to any state job. The promotion of Fu Zhenghua, the former public security vice minister, to Ministry of Justice head is another move …

Read moreFu Zhenghua, Factional Struggle, and Scrubbing the Security and Law Apparatus

How We Correctly Predicted Wang Qishan as China’s Vice President

By Don Tse and Larry Ong Introduction To rookie and veteran observers, the fate of Wang Qishan is perhaps one of the more perplexing developments in recent Chinese Communist Party (CCP) politics. Before the 19th Party Congress, pundits wondered whether Wang would retain his spot in the seven-member Politburo Standing Committee. Both Chinese and Western …

Read moreHow We Correctly Predicted Wang Qishan as China’s Vice President

Decoding China’s Proposal to Merge Banking, Insurance Regulators

According to a reorganization plan deliberated by the 13th National People’s Congress (NPC) on March 13, several State Council institutions would be dissolved or merged. One such merger is that of the banking and insurance regulators into a single entity, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission (CBIRC). The CBIRC reports directly to the State …

Read moreDecoding China’s Proposal to Merge Banking, Insurance Regulators

Personnel Watch: An Updated Two Sessions Forecast

On March 13, the 13th National People’s Congress (NPC) deliberated a plan to reform State Council institutions. According to the plan, ministerial-level government agencies under the State Council will be reduced by eight, while vice ministerial-level agencies will be reduced by seven. There are now 26 ministerial and vice ministerial-level agencies under the State Council, …

Read morePersonnel Watch: An Updated Two Sessions Forecast

Why Xi Jinping Removed China’s Presidential Term Limit

By Don Tse and Larry Ong Chinese state media published a list of constitutional changes deliberated by the Chinese Communist Party’s 19th Central Committee on Feb. 25. Among the amendments include the removal of term limits for China’s president and vice president.[1] News that China’s Xi Jinping could potentially be president for life sparked an …

Read moreWhy Xi Jinping Removed China’s Presidential Term Limit

Leaner and Meaner: Why China’s Financial Oversight Agencies May be Merging

Introduction Resolving risks in China’s financial sector is the Xi Jinping administration’s most urgent and important task of 2018. The tone has already been set by top banking regulator Guo Shuqing and former finance minister Lou Jiwei publicly expressing their concerns about financial risks in January. How the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) will tackle risks …

Read moreLeaner and Meaner: Why China’s Financial Oversight Agencies May be Merging

China’s Five Strategies for Economic Expansion in the Digital Age

After months of anticipation, the China Securities Regulatory Commission announced on Feb. 9 that China would be launching its yuan-denominated crude oil futures contract on March 26. China is also pushing its 5G networks for commercialization in 2018. Meanwhile, the Trump administration released national security and defense strategies that label China as a “revisionist power” …

Read moreChina’s Five Strategies for Economic Expansion in the Digital Age

Why China’s Vice Presidency is an Office to Watch

By Don Tse China will unveil a new crop of national-level leaders at the Two Sessions meeting in March. Typically, observers give the most attention to the vice premiers who oversee the Chinese economy and financial sector. This year, the vice presidency is arguably the most crucial position to watch for those seeking to better …

Read moreWhy China’s Vice Presidency is an Office to Watch

Wang Qishan’s Second Act: US-China Relations

By Don Tse In December 2017, President Donald Trump identified China as a “revisionist power” and strategic “competitor” in his National Security Strategy (NSS). The new U.S. National Defense Strategy (NDS) unveiled the following month echoes the NSS’s theme of long-term “great power competition” with China and Russia. And on several occasions in January, Trump …

Read moreWang Qishan’s Second Act: US-China Relations