Special Report: Coronavirus Pushes CCP Factional Struggle to Inflection Point
– The political rules of the game in the People’s Republic of China have shifted several times since Xi Jinping took office in 2012.
- The first shift occurred in 2013 with the introduction of the anti-corruption campaign.
- The second shift took place in 2018 when Xi scrapped term limits for the PRC presidency.
- The coronavirus outbreak appears to have triggered a third shift in 2020.
– Xi’s February remarks on biosecurity in the regime and his admitting knowledge of the coronavirus nearly a fortnight before the central government official confirmed the epidemic signal that the factional struggle in the CCP has shifted from “you die, I live” (你死我活) to “perish together” (同歸於盡).
– The third shift in the political rules of the game in the PRC has far-reaching implications for CCP elite politics and the Sino-U.S. relationship.
– Businesses, investors, and governments must recognize what the shift in the political rules of the game mean to mitigate Black Swan risks and seize opportunities.
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Baterdene, Researcher, The National Institute for Security Studies (Mongolian)
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Lee Jones, Reader in International Politics, Queen Mary University of London
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Sebastien Ricci, AFP correspondent for China & Mongolia
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John Lipsky, Peter G. Peterson Distinguished Scholar, Kissinger Center for Global Affairs
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