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Accurate Analysis

Our key predictions and analyses

CCP elite politics

We predicted the personnel reshuffles involving over 200 officials at the 19th Party Congress with over 80% accuracy.

We predicted that Xi Jinping would not pick a successor at the 19th Congress.

We predicted five months in advance and before any forecaster that Wang Qishan would be the next Chinese vice president.

We predicted the ranking and portfolio of all four Chinese vice premiers picked at the 2018 Two Sessions.

Sino-U.S. relations

We predicted five months early that the U.S. would raise tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods from 10 percent to 25 percent.

We predicted six months early that a trade war between China and America is “unavoidable.”

We predicted eight months early that U.S. policy towards China would take an ideological turn.

We predicted four months before verification that the U.S. is seeking to reshape the CCP-hijacked world order.

We predicted four months in advance that the U.S. ban on ZTE would be changed to a “probation.”

We predicted in April 2018 that China would not be able to withstand a trade war.

North Korean denuclearization

After President Trump canceled the first Trump-Kim summit in May 2018, we immediately predicted that the summit would still be held in June as originally scheduled.

In March 2018, we predicted that the Korean Peninsula would move towards peace and complete denuclearization.

   ELITE POLITICS​   

  • Predicted top political appointments at the 19th Party Congress and the 2018 Two Sessions with an unrivaled degree of accuracy.
  • Predicted that Xi Jinping would not appoint a successor. Predicted the four Chinese vice premier appointees and their portfolios.
  • First to predict the appointment of Wang Qishan as Chinese vice president in Oct. 2017.

   Foiled Coups   

  • Analyzed that Sun Zhengcai, Fang Fenghui, and Zhang Yang were involved in a failed coup attempt against the Xi leadership.

   Sino-U.S. Relations   

  • Predicted on Jan. 2, 2018 that a Sino-U.S. trade war is “unavoidable.”
  • Predicted and analyzed why the U.S. would remove the ban on ZTE and put the company on “probation.”
  • Analyzed that China will not be able to withstand a trade war with the United States. Analyzed that the U.S. changed its China policy and is reshaping the CCP-hijacked world order.
  • First to observe a coming ideological turn in U.S. policy on China.

 Geopolitics & North Korea 

  • First to predict a peaceful and denuclearized Korean Peninsula after Kim Jong Un visited Beijing in March 2018.
  • Predicted in April 2018 that Trump would want North Korea to surrender its nuclear weapons in his first term in office.
  • Predicted after Trump canceled his Singapore summit with Kim that the summit would still be held in June 2018.
  • Predicted Pyongyang “backslide” and progress on denuclearization after Trump announced China tariffs in June 2018.

   2019 TRACK RECORD   

  • We made 58 predictions on what might unfold in China in 2019. Our predictions covered seven categories: Politics, the economy, military, society, cross-Strait relations, Sino-U.S. relations, and China and the world.
  • Based on our tally, 31 of our 58 predictions (53.44 percent) have been verified as of Q1 2019. Another three predictions are on track to being confirmed.

 2018 TRACK RECORD 

  • We addressed seven points in our 2018 China outlook and made 20 predictions.
  • Seventeen out of the 20 predictions (85 percent accuracy) were verified over the course of the year.