Forecasting CCP
Elite Personnel Reshuffles

All issues in China are downstream from CCP elite politics, and the core problem of CCP elite politics is factional struggle.
 
Our accurate forecasts of personnel reshuffles from the highest echelons of the CCP down to the provincial and ministerial level demonstrate our deep understanding of CCP operations. Our understanding allows us to provide clients with timely political risk warnings, as well as decode future directions in Chinese politics and economic policy.

19th Party Congress personnel movements

  What happened  

  • From Oct. 18 to Oct. 24, 2017, the Chinese Communist Party held its 19th Congress to elect a new Central Committee, Central Military Commission, Politburo, and Politburo Standing Committee.

  Our forecast results   

7-member Politburo Standing Committee
  100% ACCURATE   

25-member Politburo
  80% ACCURATE  

204-member Central Committee
  81% ACCURATE   

Xi Jinping appoints no successor
  ACCURATE  

2018 Two Sessions personnel movements

  What happened  

  • From March 3 to March 20, the CCP held the Two Sessions to elect officials to key appointments in the state apparatus.

  Our forecast results   

We correctly predicted that Wang Qishan would become Chinese vice president, five months before his appointment. SinoInsider was the first to predict Wang’s appointment at the Two Sessions.
We correctly predicted all four State Council vice premiers and other key ministerial-level appointments at the 2018 Two Sessions.
We predicted over 100 personnel changes at the Two Sessions with over 70 percent accuracy.

Politburo Standing Committee of the 19th Central Committee prediction

7-member Politburo Standing Committee
100% ACCURATE

  What we said  

Our analysis was based on two guidelines

  • Xi Jinping needs to fully consolidate power while resisting interference by Party elders and the collective leadership system
  • Xi needs to keep Wang Qishan in office to maintain power.

   TIMELINE   

Politburo of the 19th Central Committee prediction

25-member Politburo
80% ACCURATE

   TIMELINE   

   When we said it    

2017-10-20

2017-10-25

   Verification    

19th CCP Central Committee prediction

204-member Central Committee
81% ACCURATE

   TIMELINE   

Xi Jinping won’t pick a successor

  What happened  

  • Before the 19th Congress, many observers predicted that Xi Jinping would designate a successor per recent Party norms. Chongqing chief Chen Min’er was widely tipped to succeed Xi.

  What we said  

  • Xi Jinping won’t pick a successor because he is consolidating power and does not need to groom future challengers to his authority.

   TIMELINE   

Wang Qishan is named Chinese vice president

  What we said  

  • We analyzed in October 2017 that Wang would become vice president, and were the first to do so. Speculations of Wang’s appointment only surfaced after our analysis was published.

  What happened  

  • On March 17, 2018 Wang Qishan is officially elected as vice president at the Two Sessions. Few observers anticipated the move.”

   TIMELINE   

State Council vice premier appointments at the 2018 Two Sessions

We correctly predicted the ranking and portfolios of incoming vice premiers Han Zheng, Sun Chunlan, Hu Chunhua, and Liu He.
100% ACCURATE

   TIMELINE   

We correctly predicted over two-thirds of the 110-plus senior appointments for key Party and state institutions at the 2018 Two Sessions.

70% ACCURATE

   TIMELINE