CCP elite politics is a black box.

SinoInsider is able to decode the black box using publicly available information because we have a deep understanding of the CCP and its operations. Our clients receive timely political risk warnings and are able to better interpret China’s political and economic trends.

19th Party Congress

OVER

80%

Accuracy

TWO SESSIONS

OVER

70%

Accuracy

FOILED COUP

Predicted Attempted Coup

Politburo Standing Committee - 100% Accurate

Our analysis was based on two guidelines

  • Xi Jinping needs to fully consolidate power while resisting interference by Party elders and the collective leadership system
  • Xi needs to keep Wang Qishan in office to maintain power.

   OUR ANALYSIS   

   Verification    

Politburo - 80% Accurate

   OUR ANALYSIS   

   Verification    

Central Committee prediction - 81% Accurate

   OUR ANALYSIS   

   Verification    

Xi Jinping won’t pick a successor

  WHAT HAPPENED  

  • Before the 19th Congress, many observers predicted that Xi Jinping would designate a successor per recent Party norms. Chongqing chief Chen Min’er was widely tipped to succeed Xi.
  WHAT WE SAID  
  • Xi Jinping won’t pick a successor because he is consolidating power and does not need to groom future challengers to his authority.

   When we said it   

   Verification    

Wang Qishan is named Chinese vice president

  WHAT WE SAID  

  • We analyzed in October 2017 that Wang would become vice president, and were the first to do so. Speculations of Wang’s appointment only surfaced after our analysis was published.
  WHAT HAPPENED  
  • On March 17, 2018 Wang Qishan is officially elected as vice president at the Two Sessions. Few observers anticipated the move."

   When we said it   

   Verification    

State Council vice premier appointments - 100% Accurate

   When we said it   

   Verification    

We correctly predicted over two-thirds of the 110-plus senior appointments for key Party and state institutions at the 2018 Two Sessions.

   When we said it   

   Verification    

Failed coup before the 19th Party Congress

  WHAT HAPPENED  

  • In July 2017, Chongqing chief Sun Zhengcai was removed from his post and investigated by the anti-corruption agency. Meanwhile, PLA chief of the joint staff Fang Fenghui and Central Military Commission Political Work Department head Zhang Yang were removed from their posts in late August 2017.
  WHAT WE SAID  
  • Sun Zhengcai, Fang Fenghui, and Zhang Yang were purged because Xi was “stopping a coup attempt by the Jiang Zemin political faction.”

   When we said it   

   Verification    

2017-10-29

Top securities regulator Liu Shiyu criticizes Sun Zhengcai and a handful of purged Jiang faction members of having “plotted to usurp the Party leadership.”

2017-11-03

Zhang Yang committed suicide while under house arrest, according to state media. He was being investigated over his links with purged military vice chairs Guo Boxiong and Xu Caihou, who were accused of seeking to “wreck and split the Party.”

2018-01-09

Fang Fenghui is officially investigated. The South China Morning Post reports that Fang is closely associated with Guo Boxiong and Xu Caihou.

2018-01-26

CCP General Office director Ding Xuexiang said at a meeting that "virtually all high-level officials who were probed for corruption were guilty of political misconduct. These officials partook in vote buying, formed cliques and factions, and some even sought to usurp the Party leadership.”

2018-10-16

State media announce the expulsion of Fang Fenghui and Zhang Yang from the Communist Party.